- Atletico Madrid have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Malaga CF have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 games.
- Atletico Madrid have won 2 of their 2 home fixtures since returning from the Asian summer break.
Familiar foes lock horns in Riyadh
The home side come into this LaLiga 2026-2027 opener on the back of a 2-match losing streak after defeats to Manchester United and Manchester City in Friendly Club Matches 2026, while Malaga CF will have had a little more time to prepare.
Oscar Fernandez, in charge since 1 July 2021, has done a fantastic job with Atletico Madrid and the same compact, hard-to-breach identity still seems to be present. The home side can line up in a 4-4-2 or 3-5-2 and have the quality to play a very disciplined defensive game in their low block, before attacking on the counter. In transition, they have bite. Ademola Lookman has scored 3 of their 9 goals in the last 5, so the ex-Everton winger looks to be the most dangerous player for the hosts here.
Juan Funes has had a brilliant year in charge of Malaga CF, taking over on 19 November 2025 and bringing energy, youth and structure. His side are a young, wide side, who like to play with tempo, quick combinations and a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 hybrid that suits the talents of the players at his disposal. They are a threat from set-pieces, but more dangerously, they have width and can play a more controlled game than you might expect.
Atletico have the edge
Atletico Madrid are the heavy favourites at 1.26, while Malaga CF are 9.5 and the draw 5.1. It's a tough game to call, but there's clearly a home win bias running through the odds, which makes sense, given that Atletico Madrid are the quality side.
Both teams to score is a close call as well, so I'm not going to chance it and just play the safer angle of Atletico to win and BTTS No at 1.62. The best way to approach this is as a clash of styles - Atletico want to keep it tight and hit on the break, whereas Malaga want to open it up a little and spread the ball wide. If the hosts can close the half-spaces and force Malaga wide, it should be a controlled home win, rather than a wide-open thriller.
A 1-0 or 2-0 Atletico win fits the numbers the best, but the value in BTTS No means we're going to pass on the correct score market.
