- Rayo Vallecano have won four of the last five meetings between the clubs (no draws).
- Rayo are unbeaten in two home matches across all current competitions (Won 1, drawn 1).
- Deportivo Alavés are unbeaten in four away matches across all current competitions (Won 3, drawn 1).
Rayo Vallecano have the head-to-head edge
Rayo Vallecano have won their last two matches against Deportivo Alavés and should be able to edge out the Basques again when these LaLiga 2026-2027 clubs meet at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas on Thursday.
Rayo have won all three of their recent matches with Alavés, and the Babazorros have failed to win on their last two trips to Vallecas - although they lost 2-1 in the away game in LaLiga 2025/2026.
So the head-to-head record makes Rayo favourites to win here, albeit by the smallest of margins. The hosts come into this game at 2.0, with Alavés 4.0 and the draw 3.1.
Alaves can make a game of it
The bookmakers view this as a home banker and perhaps it should be, but Alaves are in far better nick than Rayo heading into this clash.
Vallecano have won only one of their last five matches, with four defeats, while Alaves have won three of their last five and are on a three-game winning streak.
Sergio Camello has scored two of Rayo's six goals in the last five and can get on the scoresheet again if the home team can find the rhythm of the game in front of their home fans.
Vallecano's last three results have been a 2-1 (aet) defeat to Feyenoord Rotterdam, a 2-3 win over Royal Charleroi SC and a 3-0 defeat to Ipswich Town, all friendlies.
Alaves' last three have been a 0-1 away win at Girona FC, a 3-0 win over Castellon and a 1-1 away draw at Racing Santander (7-6 on penalties).
The Basques will line up in one of their preferred systems - 5-3-2 or 3-5-2 - and look to keep the ball out of their penalty area while looking to counter-attack.
Quique Sanchez Flores' men are drilled to play a compact, structured style that can be difficult to break down and they will do so again against Rayo's high-pressing system.
That should keep this fairly close, but Rayo's unbeaten home form and head-to-head advantage against an opponent they don't fear, suggests a home win or a low-scoring draw is the likeliest outcome.
Rayo’s home goals average fits the under bet
Across all competitions, Rayo are averaging 1.50 goals per home game in 2026-27 and they have been pretty tight at the back at 0.50 per game.
Alavés are averaging 2.75 per game on their travels and conceding 2.00 in all competitions so they can trade blows if this opens up.
But Rayo's average home goals tally is a pretty good fit for the under 2.5 goals line at 1.48, while both teams to score - No at 1.62 also looks a good bet given the nature of the contest.
Mariano Diaz has scored 2 of Alavés' 5 goals in their last 5 matches and can trouble Rayo in a game where the first goal could set the pattern for the night.
