- Dortmund have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Hamburger SV have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 games in all competitions.
HSV can make things tricky for Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund are 1.32 favourites to win Saturday's Bundesliga fixture against Hamburger SV, who are 8.6.
The hosts have won just once, drawn once and lost once of three home games in all competitions in 2026/2027, averaging just 2.00 goals per 90 minutes.
They drew 2-2 with AS Roma in Friendly Club Matches 2026 and lost 2-1 to Bayern Munich in Super Cup 2026.
HSV have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5, so this looks set to be much closer than the bookies think.
There's a lot to like in Niko Kovac's new-look Dortmund, who look more controlled than chaotic at the moment.
With a 3-4-2-1 or 5-3-2 shape, the Schwarzgelben are set up to control the ball, with targeted pressing and second-ball hunting rather than all-out pressing.
But their overall form in 2026/2027 is 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, so there are still a few question marks about their ability to finish the job.
Hamburger SV have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their 5 away games across all competitions in 2026/2027, conceding 9 goals, an average of 1.80 per 90 minutes.
Merlin Polzin has them set up in a flexible three-at-the-back system with wing-backs setting the tempo and vertical transitions causing the damage.
There's a good chance HSV's verticality could stretch Dortmund out, but they can also be caught out by horizontal pressure and this has the makings of a chess match between Dortmund's patient control and HSV's sharp punch.
HSV can certainly hurt Dortmund on the counter, but the hosts know they will need to make the ball count in order to pull out the win.
Die Schwarzgelben have won one and drawn one of their 2 meetings with HSV over the past 5 months, a period that includes a 3-2 win in Bundesliga 2025/2026, but HSV have never been more organised than they are now.
HSV have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their 5 away games in 2026/2027, so they can certainly get back on the scoresheet at Signal Iduna Park.
We're taking HSV, while 5.1 on the draw seems fair and BTTS is almost a coin flip at 1.8 Yes and 1.95 No.
Over 2.5 goals is the standout bet at 1.5, though, so we'll go for an entertaining 2-2 draw in the correct score market.
