- Toronto FC have lost four of their last five MLS 2026 away matches
- CF Montreal are a shorter price to win the Canadian Classique than Toronto FC
- CF Montreal average 1.67 goals per game at home in MLS 2026 and concede at a rate of 1.17 per game
Derby action in Canada
CF Montreal and Toronto FC clash in the Canadian 'Classique' at Saputo Stadium on Thursday with the bragging rights and momentum at stake in MLS 2026.
Both teams are struggling overall with the Blue and White averaging the same of 14 points from 14 games to sit 24th and 26th respectively in the overall standings, but Toronto have suffered the worse run of form recently and arrive in poor form.
The Reds have failed to win any of their last five matches, drawing once and losing four, with each of their previous two games ending in away defeats to Charlotte and Chicago Fire in MLS 2026.
CFM are a tough nut to crack
CF Montreal have been much more competitive with two wins, two draws and a defeat in their previous five, but their two most recent results have shown fight rather than class. They drew 4-4 at D.C. United in the MLS 2026 before edging out Vancouver Langley FC 2-1 away in the Championship 2026.
Philippe Eullaffroy has got his team playing a more compact and trap-oriented style in which they sit deep and spring quick vertical counters, which should set up an intriguing matchup with Toronto FC, who are more of a 4-2-3-1 system that relies on controlled possession in build-up and an organized press.
That contrast should make for a chess match with Montreal's transition punch against Toronto's control of possession and shape, but the fact the home side have a better record and are playing at home is why they are the slight favourites at 2.04, although TFC are not too far behind at 3.52 and the draw is 3.9.
Toronto FC are leaking goals
CF Montreal are the likelier of the pair to edge this, but the derby context and TFC's desperation to end their dismal run of results mean that a scrappy draw is very possible. The Reds have conceded 11 goals in five MLS 2026 road games, an average of 2.20 per 90 minutes, which looks vulnerable to Montreal's attacking players.
The hosts have won three, drawn one and lost two of their six MLS 2026 home games, which looks good enough to give them the edge in a derby. Montreal average 1.67 and concede 1.17 in those six home games, so backing Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 looks fair enough for this matchup while Both teams to score is also live at 1.52.
Prince Osei Owusu is Montreal's main goal threat with nine in MLS 2026 from 14 appearances, four of them in his last five games, while Daniel Salloi leads the way for Toronto with four goals in 14 games and Emilio Aristizabal has contributed two goals in their past five games.
Toronto have won one of the last two meetings between these two, the other was a 1-1 draw, and CF Montreal have failed to beat the Reds in their two previous home outings against TFC.
