- Recent form (Montreal): CF Montreal have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five games in all competitions.
- Recent form (Toronto): Toronto FC have lost four, won none and drawn one of their last five matches.
Rivals meet at the bottom of the standings
Standings and stakes
CF Montreal and Toronto FC are 24th and 26th in the MLS 2026 standings with 14 points from 14 games apiece, so the bragging rights at stake in Thursday's Canadian Classique could also determine momentum for the rest of the campaign. Neither team have played very well so far, but Montreal appear to have the more likely ingredients to edge this one at Saputo Stadium in a scrappy matchup.
Toronto's form and system
TFC have lost their last four matches in a row, including their two most recent MLS 2026 away fixtures. Robin Fraser has his team structured in a tidy 4-2-3-1 system, which should give them a solid platform to build from if they can remain calm enough to keep their shape when they get the ball and create enough disruptions in Montreal's play when they are out of possession.
Fraser's side drew 4-4 away at D.C. United in MLS 2026 a few weeks ago before beating Vancouver Langley FC 2-1 away in Championship 2026. These results show they are fighting, but it is probably still going to take a few more wins to convince most TFC fans that the season is not already a lost cause.
Montreal can control enough of this game to edge the win
Montreal have been more up and down in the recent weeks, winning two, drawing two and losing one of their last five in all competitions. But their MLS 2026 home record of three wins, one draw and two defeats in six games at Saputo should be enough to get them through a derby game against a desperate opponent.
Philippe Eullaffroy has his side set up to be a lot more compact and trap-oriented this year, sitting deeper and hitting on the counterattack in a more direct manner than before. This contrast to Toronto should make for a chess match, with the hosts' transition attack to collide with the visitors' possession-based, structured approach.
- Toronto have the edge in the head-to-head with one win and the other finishing 1-1, and Montreal have failed to beat the Red and White in their last two home games.
- But CF's record against all opponents is better than TFC's in their own backyard, so the odds of 2.04 look too tight for the hosts ahead of TFC at 3.52 with the draw priced at 3.9.
- CF Montreal average 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game at home in MLS 2026, so we think they can control this game in spells and get enough of an advantage to win.
- But Toronto will score, so over 2.5 goals at 1.65 looks a good way in while both teams to score looks live at 1.52.
