- Charlotte have a solid home record in MLS 2026 with 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 6 matches.
- New York City FC have struggled on the road, with 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats from 4 away fixtures in MLS 2026.
Deep lie home side set to outfox NYCFC
Charlotte are 16th in the MLS 2026 table with 15 points from 12 games while New York City FC are 24th with 12 points from 11 matches, but the importance of this fixture goes beyond their current standings.
Charlotte have been in poor form recently, failing to win any of their last 5 matches, with 1 draw and 4 defeats. But at home, in the last 2 at Bank of America Stadium, they have not won - drawing 2-2 against FC Cincinnati and then losing 1-0 to New England Revolution.
Dean Smith, who has been in charge of Charlotte since December 2023, has installed a deep-lying, compact, disciplined defensive unit that is capable of sitting deep in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 shape. They like to play on the counter-attack, either via long passes or set pieces and they will get plenty of opportunities to counter NYCFC here.
NYCFC have a tactical problem
Pascal Jansen took over at NYCFC in January 2025 and has an open playing style that is based on possession and building from the back. His team will play in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 and try to play through the thirds, although they do use selective high pressing to try and force turnovers, particularly in the wide areas.
This game will be a chess match between the two coaches and the middle thirds of both teams will have their work cut out. NYCFC have only won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 MLS 2026 matches, although they beat New York Red Bulls 3-0 away in the US Open Cup last time out. Prior to that they lost 2-0 at home to D.C. United.
NYCFC can nick it
The visitors have split their last two away games, so they have a chance of getting something here. They will set up to stop Charlotte’s forward play and have some potent attackers that can strike at any time.
Pep Biel has been in fine form for Charlotte with 6 goals in 12 MLS 2026 matches and is their main goal threat here. NYCFC will have a similar figure in Talles Magno, who has hit a rich vein of form, scoring 4 of NYCFC's last 12 goals across their previous 5 games. NYCFC also have Maxi Moralez, who can provide the spark and has 6 assists in 11 MLS 2026 appearances, while Nicolas Fernandez is the main striker with 8 goals in 11 games.
The bookies have Charlotte as a slight favourite at 2.1 and NYCFC at 3.1, but we feel both teams to score at 1.6 is a good option here as both coaches will tell their forwards to make a nuisance of themselves and get forward at every opportunity. Charlotte have the better home record, but we will take Charlotte to edge this in what could be a tight 2-1 home victory.
