- Toluca have won two of the last five meetings, while Pumas have won none. There were three draws, and the last game in this fixture four months ago ended in a 3-2 Toluca away win.
- Toluca have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five home games across all competitions. Pumas have two wins, two draws and one loss in their most recent five away games.
- Toluca have averaged 3.20 goals per game at home over the same five games, conceding an average of 1.80 goals. Pumas have scored an average of 1.80 goals per away game across their last five away trips, scoring nine in total.
An end-to-end clash in Mexico
Deportivo Toluca FC enter Wednesday's clash as the clear favourites at 1.69, while their guests, Pumas UNAM, are very much the outsiders at 4.51. So the bookmakers have this one all sewn up for the hosts, but we feel the visitors will give them a decent tussle.
Toluca are in mixed form, coming into this one with two wins and three defeats across their last five in all competitions, however, this doesn't tell the full story of the threat they pose. Antonio Mohamed's men are a possession-based team with a high press, their preferred style of play is to dominate the ball and force turnovers high up the pitch.
Toluca's last three games saw them beat Los Angeles FC 4-0 at home in the CONCACAF Champions Cup 2026, before a 2-0 loss away to Pachuca CF in the Liga MX 2025/2026, and then they drew 0-0 with Club Tigres de la UANL before winning 6-5 on penalties in the CONCACAF Champions Cup 2026. Mohamed took over the reins on 16 December 2024, and he's clearly got his team playing in a similar style to his previous clubs.
Pumas are a different proposition, but can also be dangerous. Esteban Solari's team have a tight, compact and transitional style, they will sit deep, keep it tight in the middle of the park, and look to pounce on any overcommitment. The two most recent games saw them defeat Pachuca CF 1-0 at home, before a 2-1 defeat at home to Cruz Azul. They're in better form than Toluca with five wins, three draws and two defeats across their last 10 in all competitions, but they're second-best in the eyes of the bookies here.
Jordan Carrillo is their key spark and has scored three goals in his last five appearances, but Pumas have found the net eight times in that period and will be capable of causing Toluca issues. We think Toluca will just edge this at home, but the visitors have been very solid of late and this will be a far more competitive game than the odds suggest.
Toluca's vertical combinations and aggressive full-backs should be able to stretch Pumas' block, but the away side will make it cagey if they can survive the opening press. The best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.61, while Both Teams to Score is 1.59.
