- Lugano are the form favourites, having won 4 of their last 5 (W4, L1) and 3 in a row.
- Runavík are in solid form, having won 2 of their last 5 (W2, D2, L1).
Lugano must make it count at home
Lugano are the clear favourites at 1.22 and the draw makes a lot of appeal at 5.8, but the Swiss side are rightful favourites to get a win at Stadio Cornaredo on Thursday. However, the visitors travel to Switzerland with some bite and could put up a decent game.
Mattia Croci-Torti has had the job at Lugano since 20 September 2021, so there's no need for an immediate impact at this stage. The Italian has employed a 4-2-3-1 as a base formation recently, but has switched to 3-at-the-back shapes on a couple of occasions in order to overload the centre of the park or stretch the opposition wide when the game is closed out.
His team play a possession-based style, with sharp vertical passes and good wing-back support. When they lose the ball, they counter-press furiously to try to recover it as quickly as possible, but if not, they are always organised and ready to counter.
NSI Runavík are much less sophisticated than their hosts and will likely sit in a low block, hoping to soak up pressure and then punish Lugano on the counter-attack or from set piece opportunities. Sigurdur Ragnar Eyjolfsson has done a solid job at the club since he took over on 1 January 2026 and they've settled into their European shape well.
Lugano’s quality should tell
Lugano's last 3 results have been a 1-0 home win over KF Dukagjini Kline in UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026, a 2-1 home win over FC Vaduz in Super League 2026/2027 and a 1-5 away win over KF Dukagjini Kline in UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026. So, they know how to respond.
Runavík's last two European games were a 0-2 defeat to FC Koper and a 1-4 win over the same opponent 5 days later, so they are also in the habit of responding quickly. Across all competitions, they have won 5 of their last 10 (D3, L2) and it is a similar story to Lugano in that they are very tough to break down.
Both Teams To Score - No at 1.7 is just under the odds-on mark for this clash, which is tight. Lugano have the edge in terms of form and home record, while Runavík are tough and are no strangers to scoring goals away from home. Over 2.5 Goals at 1.5 seems like a banker, but I think a Lugano win to nil is the most likely outcome, as the hosts can keep it tight at the back and NSI don't have quite enough quality to cause Lugano many problems.
Behrens is Lugano's main man with 3 goals in 2 appearances in UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026, while Przybylski leads the way for Runavík with 2 in 4. The Swiss team have scored 12 goals at home in all competitions, which averages 1.71 per game and that's enough to keep the home crowd happy and move on to the next round.
