- Ilves have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their 6 away matches in all competitions.
- HNK Rijeka have won 3 of their last 5 games and are on a 3-match winning streak.
- HNK Rijeka have won 3 of their 5 home games in all competitions, drawing 1 and losing 1.
Rijeka should edge a tense contest
Croatian team Rijeka have been set up with a back-four shape and are a team that plays at a vertical tempo with a high press. They've been in great form recently with 3 wins from the last 5 and have got themselves onto a 3-match winning run.
Their last 3 results have been a 2-0 home win over NK Gorica in the HNL, a 1-0 home win over Derry City in UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 and a 1-0 win away to Derry City in the same competition. They've been in fine form and coach Matjaz Kek has them playing well.
The Finnish side have been in good form themselves with 4 wins from the last 5 and a 2-match winning streak. However, only one of these victories has come away from home, where they have won just 1 and lost 4 of their 6 games.
Camilo Speranza has set Ilves up to be compact and tough to break down, but they do have a strong fight-first identity. They've been very direct in transition, quick balls in behind and long spells with the ball have been a rare occurrence. Ilves will look to disrupt Rijeka's rhythm here and take advantage of any overcommitment on the break.
Jardell Kanga has 1 goal in 4 games in this competition and 3 assists in the Finns' last 5 matches in all competitions and is the main source of creativity for Ilves. Daniel Adu-Adjei has been Rijeka's leading goal threat in this 2026 UEFA Conference League Qualification campaign with 1 goal in 2 games.
Rijeka have scored just 6 goals in their last 5 home games in all competitions and are more likely to be on the right side of a narrow scoreline than in an explosive game.
I think the best play here is a Rijeka win, but it could be tight. Ilves are tough to crack, but Rijeka have been in better form and will have the crowd behind them on Thursday. The odds are in the Croatian's favour, but I think a conservative wager on the home side makes most sense.
Ilves are currently averaging 1.33 goals scored per game and 1.67 conceded per game in away games in all competitions and those stats suggest a tight contest.
The odds reflect this with the home team at 1.55, Ilves at 5.8 and the draw at 3.9. Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 is an obvious play here, but BTTS-No at 1.78 edges out the market in my opinion.
