- Stuttgart are fourth in the Bundesliga with mid-40s points from 24-25 matches.
- Porto are top of the Portuguese table on 65 points from 24 games.
- Stuttgart have netted four goals twice in their last five matches and were involved in a 3-3 draw at Heidenheim.
Dragão set for a European night
FC Porto will take a slender 2-1 aggregate advantage from their trip to Stuttgart into Thursday’s UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 round-of-16 second leg and both managers will know that the winner of this tie will be in for a long, profitable run to the quarter-final with significant sporting and financial rewards.
FC Porto boss Francesco Farioli’s side have impressed in recent weeks, tightening up at the back and becoming much more efficient in transition - particularly in European games.
The Dragons have conceded just three goals in their last five competitive matches and are likely to get through to the next round if they keep this level of defensive concentration and attacking discipline against Stuttgart.
Stuttgart are a mixed bag
Stuttgart have been a mixed bag this season, combining some big wins with some defensive lapses and conceding goals in high-scoring Bundesliga draws such as their 3-3 away to Heidenheim or 4-0 home to Wolfsburg.
Sebastian Hoeneß’s system is built around high pressing and fluid attacking shapes with a disciplined double pivot and width and it has made his side one of the Bundesliga’s most proactive and unpredictable attacks.
Hoeneß’s side should not be underestimated here as they are just as likely to score as Porto. But the Dragons are the more compact team and more structured in possession with their pivots able to switch easily into a hybrid low block.
Diogo Costa is a commanding presence in the Porto goal and has made some key saves in Europe, while Rodrigo Mora is a constant threat to the opposition goal, having scored some vital goals in both the league and European competition.
This tie will be tight with Porto just ahead
With Porto a goal up and Stuttgart forced onto the front foot, it is likely to be a tight and tactical game. Porto’s compressed central tempo and high pressing triggers might clash with Stuttgart’s more sustained width and positional intensity, so this could be a chess match with VfB trying to hold their own in possession and create opportunities to break through.
Our prediction is that the game is most likely to finish in a 1-1 draw, although Porto’s extra experience and defensive solidity will give them a slight edge in progressing to the last eight.
Both teams have no major absentees from the first leg, although Stuttgart will have to manage their cards in midfield, with Porto a marginal favourite at 2.42, VfB 2.7 and the draw 3.5.
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.6 is our preferred play for this game, as it will be an open affair with plenty of chances for both sides. Stuttgart could steal it if they get off to a fast start, but we will be sticking with Porto to continue their run in the competition.
