- Porto hold a 2-1 advantage going into the second leg of this UEFA Europa League round-of-16 tie.
- Stuttgart have scored four goals twice in their last five competitive games but also conceded in high-scoring draws, including a 3-3 draw at Heidenheim.
- Porto have conceded only three goals in their last five, an unbeaten run that includes a 2-2 draw at Benfica and two consecutive home wins in the Primeira Liga.
Porto press and pepper Stuttgart at the right time
FC Porto take a 2 - 1 advantage into Thursday’s second leg of their UEFA Europa League 2025 - 2026 last-16 tie with VfB Stuttgart, which will be decided at the Dragão in mild weather, with a chance of rain.
FC Porto boss Francesco Farioli has implemented a compact, possession-based structure that morphs from 4-3-3 to central overloads in different phases of the game and a hybrid low block, which allows the hosts to press at the optimum times and to counter with pace and precision.
Pepê is the engine of their creative play, leading the team in assists. He is the main playmaker, breaking opposition presses and spraying balls into wide areas for wingers or driving at defenders to shoot. But Pepê is not the only player who can hurt Stuttgart on the counter attack, with Rodrigo Mora the club’s most consistent goal threat, contributing crucial goals in both league and European fixtures.
Undav on a scoring run for Die Roten
Stuttgart boss Sebastian Hoeneß has been tactically flexible and his side are one of the most dangerous and unpredictable in the Bundesliga, currently fourth with their points total in the mid-40s after 24 - 25 games.
The club is pushing for a Champions League place and Hoeneß has shown no fear in setting up his 4-2-3-1 system to press high and wide, with energy and discipline in the double pivot and the wide players creating chances. Angelo Stiller brings a real energy and positional discipline to Stuttgart’s midfield that has been crucial to their ability to keep the high tempo going in their games.
Deniz Undav leads the line and has been prolific again this term with double-digit Bundesliga goal involvements. His ability to play off Jamie Leweling, who chips in with goals and assists from the flanks, makes Die Roten deadly on the break and a threat in transition.
Both teams likely to play to win
With progression to the quarter-finals and all that entails in terms of sporting and financial rewards at stake, there will be no holding back from either manager with both expected to name strong lineups and no major absences reported from the first leg.
No major absences are expected for this second-leg after the first in Germany, with Stuttgart having nothing to lose. Porto are unbeaten in five competitive matches, drawing 2-2 at bitter rivals Benfica and winning their two home Primeira Liga games since then.
Diogo Costa is the boss of Porto’s defence, which has been solid in the last few games, although this will be a real test for Farioli’s new team. Both teams to score - Yes is our main selection at 3/5 as this should be an open fixture with chances at both ends.
Porto are the slight favourites at 71/50, with Stuttgart 17/10 and the draw 5/2, which seems to be an accurate reflection of the respective positions. But Stuttgart have been so free-scoring of late that an upset cannot be ruled out and it may just take an early goal for Die Roten to get on top.
Our 1-1 correct score forecast would see Stuttgart get back into the tie and make the night at the Dragão very nervy for Porto, although Farioli’s men are very solid at the back and more likely to edge a result on the night.
