- Both teams arrive in good form with Stuttgart unbeaten in five Bundesliga matches (W3, D2) and scoring 13 goals, while Porto have won four of their last five in the Primeira Liga (L1).
- The home side won 4-1 in Glasgow to overcome Celtic in their last Europa League round and are enjoying a resurgence under Sebastian Hoeneß.
- FC Porto have won 21 of their 24 Primeira Liga matches this season. Porto are missing star striker Samu Aghehowa to a knee injury, while Stuttgart will have Deniz Undav leading the line.
A tale of two cities
This is the first ever competitive meeting between VfB Stuttgart and FC Porto in UEFA competition and the contrast in styles should make for an intriguing Europa League first leg contest. Stuttgart play a high-octane, vertical 4-2-3-1 system under Sebastian Hoeneß where they aggressively press and look to transition quickly, while Porto prefer a fluid 4-3-3 system where they control the tempo and dictate the terms.
Stuttgart will look to stretch the game wide in the first half and pinch goals behind Porto’s lines through the second half when the opposition are likely to be most vulnerable, while Porto will seek to overload the centre of the pitch and use their midfield to control tempo. The home team are favourites for this match at 2.18, while Porto are priced at 3.58, although the draw at 3.62 looks close.
Betting angles
FC Porto are a well-balanced team with many creative players and Diogo Costa is an international class goalkeeper, but their biggest strength is their ability to win games. Porto have won 21 of their 24 matches this term in the Portuguese top flight.
However, Francesco Farioli’s team did suffer an upset, losing to Casa Pia, while star striker Samu Aghehowa has been ruled out with a serious knee injury.
Porto have been a bit erratic of late and this trip is a tough assignment, but Farioli has been rewarded with a contract extension for his adaptable approach, which can mix possession-based play with proactive pressing. Gabri Veiga, Seko Fofana and Alan Varela have controlled the tempo in Samu Aghehowa's absence, but the Portuguese giants may be up against it in Stuttgart on Thursday.
VfB Stuttgart are in good nick
Stuttgart are in great form and their 4-0 home win over Wolfsburg last time out was a real statement of intent. The Bundesliga club currently sit fourth in the standings and have enjoyed a resurgence under Hoeneß. Deniz Undav has been their talisman in the line-up and has scored double-digit goals in the league this term, so it may be worth backing Bilal El Khannouss to get on the scoresheet as he has been their star in Europe.
Stuttgart have the edge in this contest as they are in better form, but the odds for the draw also look tempting at 3.62 as Porto have experience and a solid structure. Stuttgart are in the ascendency, however, and the noise of the MHP Arena and the attacking momentum of the hosts could be enough for the three points here, although Porto’s experience and ability to keep things solid will make for a tense first leg.
With Stuttgart favoured and Porto missing their main striker, the ‘Under 2.5 goals’ market at 2.07 could be the way to go here as these two teams know how to keep it tight and one goal may settle this clash.
