- Genoa have failed to win either of their last 2 home matches against AC Fiorentina.
- Genoa have drawn 1 and lost 2 of their 3 home matches in Serie A 2026/2027.
- Fiorentina have won 1 and lost 1 of their 2 away matches in Serie A 2026/2027.
Tight Fiorentina lean
Genoa are 19th in Serie A 2026/2027 having taken just 1 point from their 5 games so far, while AC Fiorentina are 17th with 4 points from their 5 matches. Il Grifone are coming into this fixture on the back of a 2-match losing streak, going down 2-1 at AC Parma in Serie A 2026/2027 and 2-0 at Rapid Bucuresti in a friendly.
Since Paolo Vanoli took over at Fiorentina on 7th September 2026, La Viola have looked more structured and balanced in possession, with their wide-front-three and overlapping full-backs trying to stretch Genoa's back three and exploit the half-spaces and wings. They've been able to pick up some momentum with a 4-2 away win at SSC Venezia in Serie A 2026/2027 and a 3-0 Coppa Italia victory over Pisa prior to last Saturday's 1-1 home draw against Napoli.
Genoa are coming into this one on the back of defeats, so we're not backing either at the odds-on prices here. Fiorentina are 2.2, Genoa are 3.2 and the draw is 3.3. Both sides are a little too unreliable to back them to win the match and with the last two head-to-head meetings both finishing level, it's hard to go against the draw at all here.
Game will be played in the middle thirds
Daniele De Rossi's arrival at Genoa has made the side more organised, where they work hard, win second balls and are ready to spring counters through high wing-backs and direct balls over the top. That should keep this game in the center thirds and we think that's a problem for Fiorentina here, who haven't stopped conceding goals on the road.
They're still shipping 3.00 goals per away match after conceding 6 times on their 2 road games. With Genoa conceding an average of 2.33 at home and only averaging 0.67 goals per match, Under 2.5 goals at 1.8 looks like the best alternative market for this game.
Lorenzo Colombo and Mateo Pellegrino to score
Lorenzo Colombo has been Genoa's creative spark so far in Serie A 2026/2027, delivering 2 assists in 5 matches. However, with 2 of Genoa's last 4 goals scored by Milutin Osmajic, we're going for the Montenegrin striker to be Il Grifone's main threat here.
Franco Mastantuono is Fiorentina's chief finisher, with 3 goals in 5 Serie A 2026/2027 matches, but Mateo Pellegrino has also been hot of late, with 3 of Fiorentina's 9 goals in their last 5 games in all competitions coming from his boot.
Cher Ndour has been pulling the strings for La Viola though, supplying 2 assists in 5 Serie A 2026/2027 games, and we're backing the Senegalese winger to get on the scoresheet here.
