- Olympiakos have won 2 and drawn 1 of their last 3 home games, conceding only 2 goals.
- NEC are seeking their first away win in 4 games in all competitions, drawing 2 and losing 2, and have conceded 7 goals across those 4 away trips.
- Both teams have identical W3 D3 L4 records across all competitions in their last 10 games.
Olympiakos must overcome the odds in Greece
Olympiakos Piraeus FC are 1.6 favourites to win their UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026 third qualifying-round clash against NEC Nijmegen of the Eredivisie this Tuesday, with the Dutch team coming in at 6.4 and the draw at 3.7.
The Greeks do have the home advantage advantage and look the more likely victors at Karaiskakis Stadium, but the bookies don't seem to fully factor in a few aspects that suggest this won't be a walkover.
Olympiakos are on a run of 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, so they're in a bit of a slump that even coach Jose Luis Mendilibar cannot deny. Their back-to-back defeats to Royal Antwerp and AZ Alkmaar were particularly poor results.
NEC also have an inconsistent recent form to contend with, winning 2 and losing 3 of their last 5 matches in all competitions - a run that included a 7-0 home win against Al Feiha followed by a 1-0 loss at home to SV Elversberg in their opening two European qualifiers.
Mendilibar has been in charge at Olympiakos since February 2024 and his team's style of play, a high-tempo, direct 4-2-3-1 formation with a high press and wide overloads, hasn't changed much since he joined.
NEC, meanwhile, are the polar opposite in terms of playstyle, preferring to keep things narrow with wing-backs, positional interplay and a more coordinated pressing style.
The two teams' contrasting styles should lead to a battle for second balls and half-space domination, with Olympiakos looking to play through the press and NEC aiming to keep compact and play through in numbers.
The game could be a bit of a scrap, but Olympiakos have a solid recent home record, having won their most recent home game and staying perfect in a 3-game sequence at home.
NEC are still searching for their first win away from home across all competitions, so we're backing Olympiakos to win this clash.
The odds are very tight, however, so we're going to take a chance on Under 2.5 goals at 1.95, as opposed to Over 2.5 at 1.82 and BTTS No at 1.93. There's a lot to like about the Both Teams to Score Yes option at 1.78, but the Under 2.5 selection gives us a little more safety and still plenty of profit potential.
Jota Silva is the key player for Olympiakos, scoring 3 of their 5 goals in the last 5 matches, but we reckon NEC can keep him quiet enough to ensure this tie stays tight and will see another round of football for both clubs.
