- Olympiakos are 3/5 favourites to win this Champions League third-qualifying-round tie, with NEC 27/5 and the draw 27/10.
- Both clubs have identical records in all competitions over the last 10 matches - W3 D3 L4.
Narrow, tense affair expected at Karaiskakis
Olympiakos Piraeus FC will fancy their chances to reach the play-off round of UEFA Champions League qualification in 2026, but this first-leg clash with NEC Nijmegen isn't a sure-fire thing despite their odds-on favourites status.
The odds on the game look wrong, in our opinion, as both clubs have experienced some inconsistent form of late and there is more to this game than meets the eye.
Olympiakos are in a bit of a sticky patch, having won just 1 of their last 5 games (D1 L3), with defeats to Royal Antwerp and AZ Alkmaar coming in back-to-back games.
NEC have been even more erratic, winning 2 and losing 3 of their last 5, with a 7-0 home win over Al Feiha being followed by a 0-1 home loss to SV Elversberg.
Olympiakos’ Jota Silva can hurt NEC
Yet, Olympiakos' home form remains strong, with their most recent home fixture maintaining their unbeaten home record (W2 D1) this season.
And although NEC may be capable of causing an upset, their record of 2 draws and 2 defeats from 4 away games this term - with 7 goals conceded in those games - points to a likely home win.
Jota Silva is the danger man for Olympiakos and their best chance of making a breakthrough in this game, having scored three of his team's five goals in their last 5 matches.
José Luis Mendilibar's side, who the Spaniard has been in charge of since February 2024, play a direct 4-2-3-1 system with a very high press and wing overloads.
Dick Schreuder's side, who he took over on 1st July 2025, play a much more structured and counter-press system with their wing-backs and positional overloads in half-space.
The contrasting approaches should lead to a battle for second balls and the half-spaces with Olympiakos looking to blow through NEC's press and the Dutch side trying to stay compact and hit on the break.
Olympiakos are the more likely winners on home turf, but NEC are clearly capable of making a game of this tie, so we're siding with the visitors to avoid a defeat rather than take the short odds on the home side.
And the market looks tight on the goals, with Under 2.5 at 19/20, Over 2.5 at 41/50 and Both Teams to Score split at 93/100 (No) and 39/50 (Yes).
