- Australia are second in FIFA World Cup Group D with 3 points from 1 game, while Paraguay are fourth with zero points after their opening game defeat.
- Australia beat Turkey 2-0 in a solid Group D win just 4 days ago, while Paraguay were beaten 4-1 away to the USA just 6 days prior.
- Australia have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches in all competitions.
World Cup return adds extra spice to Group D clash
Australia will test Paraguay's defensive resolve in a Group D World Cup Group Stage match at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium on Friday, with the return of the Albirroja to the tournament after a multi-tournament absence adding extra spice to the proceedings.
Tony Popovic's men have been excellent since the Australian coach took the reins in September 2024, playing a high-tempo, vertical game and pressing their opponents hard. The Socceroos are energetic, aggressive and direct in attack, using their pace to exploit space in behind and making them a real threat in transition.
Popovic's pressing game means the Australians work their backsides off on the field and have the ability to punish teams that can't cope with their high-intensity style. Nestory Irankunda is in form for Australia with 3 goals in their last 5, while Connor Metcalfe is the team's highest scorer in World Cup Group D with 1 goal, Paul Okon-Engstler has 1 assist in the group and is a key playmaker.
Paraguay are an organised, compact side
Gustavo Alfaro's side are a much more organised, compact unit and he's been a pragmatic coach since taking the job in August 2024. His philosophy of structure first is evident in Paraguay's 4-3-3 formation, which is much less adventurous than the name suggests.
Paraguay are not a possession-based team but they are happy to control the build-up play if they are able to, with Alfaro encouraging his side to press selectively. The Albirroja are most dangerous on the break or from set pieces and Alfaro's tactical discipline has made them difficult to beat this summer.
However, Paraguay's recent defensive lapses have cost them and they approach Friday's game following back-to-back defeats to Morocco and the USA in their two most recent away games. Mauricio has 1 goal in 1 World Cup game for Paraguay this summer, while Julio Enciso, with 1 assist in the group and 3 assists in Paraguay's last 5 games, is a more creative force.
Odds and value underdog
Paraguay are favoured at 2.15 against an Australia side rated 3.45, but the value for small stakes looks more likely to be on Alfaro's men, who should have a little bit more quality in this fixture.
The contrast in tactics between two well-drilled sides should lead to a tight, cagey affair but Australia's pressing should ensure that they are competitive throughout the 90 minutes at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium.
Paraguay will try to restrict Australia's play and punish them on the counter, while the Socceroos will look to dominate the ball and press Paraguay relentlessly. We think Alfaro's team should be able to hold off the Australians and edge this one, but Australia's energy and pressing game should keep it close, so we're going for 'Under 2.5 goals' at 1.66.
