- Paraguay have scored nine times in their last five matches, but also conceded seven goals in that sequence.
- Australia have scored the same amount, nine goals in their last five, indicating that they can score and have been in decent form.
Paraguay still reeling from USA thumping
The two World Cup Group D sides clash at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, with Australia currently sitting second with three points and Paraguay fourth with zero.
The Socceroos made a great start to their campaign with a solid 2-0 victory over a decent Turkey side and they will be looking to maintain that momentum against Paraguay, who suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat to the USA on Saturday.
Australia's gameplan under Tony Popovic, who has been in charge since September 2024, is quite different to Paraguay's approach under Gustavo Alfaro, who was appointed in August 2024.
Popovic has made Australia a high-tempo, pressing team that likes to play vertical football and attack the spaces behind the defence. Alfaro's men are more compact and play a low-block 4-3-3, avoiding unnecessary risks in possession and pressing selectively before looking to hurt their opponents on transitions and set pieces.
Oceania side can make Alfaro's team sweat
Australia's high-energy, high-pressing style should make them a handful for Paraguay to handle and the fact that they played just four days ago could make for a scrappy affair in the early stages. But it's Paraguay that is coming into the match as the slight favourites at 23/20, with Australia marked up at 49/20.
Given the gap between the two in the betting, and the additional importance of this group game for Paraguay in their World Cup appearance, we're backing Alfaro's side to grind out a win at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, USA.
The Australian away record isn't great, coming into this fixture on the back of a defeat in their most recent away match, so there's scope for Alfaro's players to do enough here. But Popovic's team will press hard and that could lead to a close affair.
Goals should be limited in tight encounter
Paraguay have been getting it right under Alfaro, who has kept his team compact and dangerous on the break, but recent lapses in concentration have cost them and they should be wary of Australia's press.
An Under 2.5 goals bet appeals at 33/50 as a result, while a 1-0 win for Paraguay has some appeal in the correct score market.
Paraguay have nine goals in their last five internationals, so they can be trusted to find a way to get on the scoresheet against this Australian defence, but they have also conceded too many goals recently. Nestory Irankunda has three in his last five for Australia and could get a chance or two to make a difference here.
Mauricio is the team's main goal threat with one goal in his one World Cup game so far, but Julio Enciso could be a threat from the wing with one assist in the group and three in his last five. Connor Metcalfe is Australia's World Cup goal-scorer with one to his name, but Paul Okon-Engstler could make a play with an assist to his name in this group.
