- St. Gallen have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten matches in all competitions (W7, D1, L2).
- St. Gallen have won five, drawn none and lost one of their six away matches in all competitions (W5, D0, L1).
- Benfica have won three, drawn one and lost one of their five home games in all competitions (W3, D1, L1).
St. Gallen can make it tight and tricky at Estadio da Luz
Benfica are 1.24 to win this UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026 second leg fixture against a FC St. Gallen side that are a huge 5.6 to advance and 5.6 to nick a draw, which is almost enough to put you off the Portuguese giants.
The Eagles will certainly justify their status as favourites if they can take three points on Thursday, but St. Gallen's 2-1 win in Portugal last week keeps this tie on a knife-edge and has us searching for value elsewhere.
And while the Swiss side are not quite in the same class as Benfica in terms of the quality of player on the pitch, the momentum is with the visitors and they could make this a very close game.
St. Gallen are a dangerous side to play right now
Enrico Maassen took charge of the St. Gallen team on 1st July 2024 and he has clearly installed a pragmatic 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 system that keeps the team compact, lives off the transitions and disrupts the possession sides with disruptive pressing.
St. Gallen's last five games have produced three wins and two defeats (W3, D0, L2) and while that's not the form of a team on the verge of a great streak, they have shown plenty of life in the game.
They've lost 6-3 away to Lyon, been beaten 0-3 at home by Norwich City and then beaten Benfica 2-1 in the last leg to show they are a live wire side and that's a recipe for danger.
Benfica have been solid, not solid at home
Marco Silva has been Benfica's head coach since 1st July 2026 and he has yet to set his mark on the team for a long stretch, but he has certainly built a solid base for them to build their play from.
The Eagles have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 in all competitions, which is a solid, if not spectacular, run of form and the results have been a bit of a mixed bag.
Benfica bounced back from a 2-0 home win over Villarreal CF with a 2-1 defeat in Switzerland to make this a tightly poised two-game series, but their home record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 matches shows they are beatable in Portugal.
Eagles are still the favourites
The obvious value play here is on St. Gallen getting something from the match, but Benfica are clearly the more likely winners and should just edge what is expected to be a very tight game.
Benfica have conceded just five goals in five home matches in all competitions, so they will control the flow and pace of this game with their possession and pressing. St. Gallen will remain compact and look to break at pace with their forwards.
This is a classic possession-versus-transition matchup, and whichever team wins the tempo battle should own the night. Benfica have the better players and a deeper squad, so they should get the three points, albeit not with any real ease and certainly not in a manner that suggests the 1.24 about them makes any sense.
Rafa Silva is Benfica's main outlet and goal-scorer in this competition with one goal in one appearance, but the midfielder has four of his team's nine goals across all competitions in their last five matches and is worth the investment to get into the scoresheet on Thursday.
St. Gallen have struck 13 goals in six away games in all competitions, an average of 2.17 goals per game, so they have plenty of counter firepower. Aliou Balde has one goal in this qualification campaign so far and is the Swiss team's biggest threat on the day.
