- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten at home (W1) this season, but they have already conceded 2 at their own ground.
- Qarabag are unbeaten in their last 3 away (W3).
- Qarabag are the market favourites at 2.26, followed by CSKA Sofia at 3.07 and the draw at 3.3.
Side with the Underdogs in Bulgaria
A 0-0 draw in Qarabag's home leg of this tie in UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026 means this is set up to be a cagey affair at the Vasil Levski, Bulgaria, on Thursday.
CSKA Sofia have been in patchy form, winning 2, drawing 2 and losing 1 of their last 5 all competitions, while Qarabag have been in much better shape, winning 4 and drawing 1 of their last 5.
That's why we're going with Qarabag to squeeze past CSKA on the night and we like the feel of the Under 2.5 goals at 1.7 and Both Teams to Score - No at 1.87, respectively, on what should be a very tight first leg.
Qarabag should nick it in Bulgaria
Qurban Qurbanov has shaped FK Qarabag into a long-term, well-drilled unit since taking over on 1 July 2008 and this is a very tough side to play against.
The Azerbaijani champions usually play in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but can flip between a 4-3-3 with the No.10 playing a little deeper, depending on the game plan.
Qarabag have won 7, drawn 2 and lost only 1 of their last 10 all-competitions and are in a solid groove right now, while their away form is also excellent, having not lost in 3, winning all of those games.
CSKA are a shape-shifting side
CSKA Sofia are a much more fluid team, having switched between a back-three and back-four since Hristo Yanev took over on 24 September 2025.
He has made them a very adaptable side, which can look to be anything from a 3-5-2, 3-4-2-1 to a 4-2-3-1, with the wide players sometimes doing a lot of the damage up front.
Ioannis Pittas has been CSKA's main man so far in UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026, scoring 3 times in 3 matches and 3 of his team's last 4 goals.
The hosts are more of a solid team than a flashy one, with 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 matches all-competitions, so we feel like this first-leg matchup could come down to a chess game between Qarabag's well-drilled pressing structure and CSKA's more adaptable shape.
In a tight contest, Qarabag should be the team to nick it and they will be looking to make it into the second leg with a narrow advantage.
