- Udinese have won two and drawn one of their last five matches, beating Nottingham Forest and FC Barcelona in back-to-back home games (1-0).
- Padova have won four and drawn one of their last 10 matches, but they have lost five of those.
- Udinese's record in all competitions at home this season reads: two wins, one draw and three defeats, averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded per game.
An old-fashioned Italian clash
The clash of Udinese Calcio and Padova on Saturday is a match-up between two very different sides playing equally different styles. The hosts are a more possession-based team, who enjoy controlling the tempo, pressing in an organised manner and progressing the ball through the thirds in a structured way.
Kosta Runjaic has been in charge of the Bianconeri since 14th June 2024 and they seem more cohesive in their game model in recent weeks, particularly at home, where they have won their last two games against Nottingham Forest (1-0) and FC Barcelona (1-0).
In contrast, Padova, who are overseen by Antonio Nicola Calabro since 13th June 2026, are a more aggressive and compact unit, who are capable of getting men behind the ball quickly and then counterattacking in numbers. They use a three-man defence, they play quicker and they will be looking to switch the field to try and create a two-on-one scenario against the opposition.
The hosts should have the edge
Udinese are a solid Serie A side and despite a patchy run of results over the last 10 games (W3, D2, L5) across all competitions, they should have far too much for Padova on paper. Keinan Davis has two of the team's five goals across their last five games and that gives them a sharp edge in the box. Padova's Luca Di Maggio has two of his side's five in the same period and he's their sharpest attacking spark.
The odds do look very fair in favour of the home side at 1.37 with the Biancoscudati coming in at 8.1 and the draw at 4.6. That's because Padova are a good team on the counter and won't be afraid to trade blows in a shootout, as the 4-3 away win over Cesena attests.
They may not have the same quality in the final third as Udinese, but they have enough and their away record suggests they can get on the scoresheet here - one win, one draw and four defeats in six games, but they are averaging 1.50 per match away.
Look for an upset
Backing Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 is a good play on this matchup, not because there are likely to be loads of chances, but because Padova will play on the front foot. The visitors have enough about them to keep this closer than the odds suggest, but Udinese should have the better of the action over the course of the game.
