- Stuttgart come into this tie in better form with three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five in all competitions.
- They beat Wolfsburg 4-0 at home and defeated Celtic 4-1 away in the previous Europa League round.
Porto should make the MHP Arena a battlefield
VfB Stuttgart and FC Porto clash in what should be a fascinating tactical chess match on Thursday when the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League commences with the first legs of the Round of 16 matches. Both teams come into the tie in good form and will be confident of progressing through the two-legged affair.
The hosts have enjoyed a resurgence under Sebastian Hoeneß and his pressing, high-octane 4-2-3-1 system that is built for quick transitions and scoring goals. They sit fourth in the Bundesliga and are unbeaten in their last five Bundesliga matches, scoring 13 goals in that run. Deniz Undav has been their talisman and has double-digit league goals.
They blasted past Celtic in the last round with a 4-1 win at Celtic Park that set them up for a Round of 16 clash with Porto.
Stuttgart and Porto are evenly matched
Francesco Farioli has just been rewarded with a contract extension by Porto for his flexible playing style that involves a lot of ball control, patient build-up play, central overloads and proactive pressing. The Dracoes can be a really fluid 4-3-3 unit that can dictate the tempo and control the ball while keeping opponents at bay.
Porto top the Primeira Liga table with 21 wins from 24 games so far this season and have conceded few goals in the Portuguese top flight. They have had a disappointing month with a shock 1-0 home defeat to Casa Pia and their best striker Samu Aghehowa out with a serious knee injury.
In Diogo Costa, Porto have a very experienced goalkeeper and defensive leader with international pedigree while new arrival Jan Bednarek has added some steel to their defensive line and composure to their attack. They should have enough quality to frustrate and limit Stuttgart’s attacking threat, particularly with the Dragons’ three-man midfield of Gabri Veiga, Seko Fofana and Alan Varela, which has controlled so many of their games when Aghehowa wasn’t on the field.
Back the draw in a tight tussle
We think this match will be a tight one with the odds favouring the hosts at 59/50 in Stuttgart, which is a little surprising when you consider Porto’s record-breaking domestic season and the fact they are without their top scorer. Porto are 129/50 with the draw at 131/50, which is also a little big given the visitors have more to prove.
Porto have been solid defensively of late and, with Porto missing their top striker, the Under 2.5 goals market at 107/100 could be where the value lies for Thursday’s first-leg encounter. A goal either way could be enough to take this tie and a raucous MHP Arena full of Stuttgart fans could just push the game to a draw.
