- Melbourne Victory finished 4th in the 2025-26 A-League Men, scoring 44 and conceding 33, compared to Wellington's 8th place, 33 points from 26 matches, 36 goals scored and 48 conceded.
- Wellington Phoenix are set to start with a fresh approach and fresh faces under Chris Greenacre this season.
Melbourne Victory too fresh and fresh for the Nix
Melbourne Victory are fresh off the back of a deep Australia Cup run, having reached the final under Giovanni Savarese. The system and structure that the boss has brought to the Big V is an attacking, front-foot system that has taken no time to take shape, especially considering Victory's deep run to the Cup Final.
Savarese has instilled a press-and-tempo that suits Victory's personnel and they were able to take the footy to South Melbourne in a 1-1 draw that they eventually lost in a penalty shootout. With Denis Genreau, Victory have a super sub to go to when the game needs livening up - he did exactly that with a dramatic extra-time equaliser in the Australia Cup final and could turn this game on its head in an instant.
Melbourne Victory have a strong head-to-head record over the Nix in this fixture, although the last 5 meetings across all competitions have seen 12 goals scored and a clear mix of narrow grinders and goal-fests with Victory winning 3 and the Nix taking the spoils on two occasions. The last meeting was a 5-1 thumping on 29 Dec 2025, but the Nix got some payback in a 1-0 away win on 5 Apr 2026, a game in which Sander Kartum was at his livewire best.
Phoenix need to prove they’re a force
Wellington Phoenix finished 8th in 2025-26 and they'll be looking to make a statement in Round 1 if this season is to turn out any better. Chris Greenacre has pushed Wellington toward a higher-energy, mentality-driven reset, and they do look better for it in pre-season so far, but there's still some fresh blood that needs to bed in before they can make a mark on games.
Bryce Duke will be the focal point of their build-up play and Greenacre has been very clear about how he wants the creative spark to dictate the tempo and flow of games as an attacking fulcrum. Alex Rufer will anchor the Nix' midfield, bringing leadership and control to a side that will be playing with a little extra edge in the final third.
Wellington Phoenix tailed off towards the end of the 2025-26 campaign. The Nix may arrive in Round 1 looking to get ahead of the chasing pack, but Victory have the momentum and will have the wind in their sails after their Cup run, so they hold a slight edge.
Victory to edge a tight opener
A 1-1 draw at 3.7 is a reasonable choice for the correct score, but 2-1 to Melbourne Victory looks the most likely result in the correct score market, given the odds on the away side and the head-to-head in this fixture across the past 5 meetings.
Victory to nick it on the road looks the most viable option for a winner but the draw is there to be had at a generous price, while BTTS & Over 2.5 goals looks a solid play at 1.5 and 1.57 respectively.
