- Aston Villa have a psychological edge and historical edge in this fixture having had more success against Forest than vice versa across the last few decades.
- Villa won at home and drew away against Forest in the league this season, but lost 1-0 in the away leg of the UEL semi.
- Ollie Watkins has been Villa’s talisman, scoring prolifically in the Premier League and Europe this season, including crucial goals in the quarter-finals.
Emery’s Europa expertise
Aston Villa are hot favourites to beat Nottingham Forest and overturn the one-nil aggregate deficit they have to overcome at home on Thursday night, but the Villans are not a sure bet to beat the Tricky Trees in the second leg of their Europa League semi-final.
Unai Emery’s side have had more overall success against Forest than their East Midlands rivals have enjoyed against them in the last few decades and Villa have the psychological edge of having beaten Forest at Villa Park this season and avoiding defeat at the City Ground.
With Villa home and having played the away game first, it seems clear to us that the Villans have a better chance of booking their place in the final in Istanbul, where a Champions League berth and a piece of silverware await the winner.
Both teams can score
The bookies clearly agree that Villa are the most likely to secure the victory on the night, quoting them at 87/100 with Forest 88/25 and the draw 143/50. Emery has had incredible success in this competition, winning it multiple times.
Villa are a well-disciplined, compact unit that can control the tempo of any game by suffocating their opponents and launching quick vertical attacks. They can score plenty of goals in this way, which tends to come about from Emery’s attention to detail and ability to get his team to stick to their gameplan.
However, Vítor Pereira’s counter-attacking approach means Forest could create as many chances from Villa’s attempts to control possession on Thursday. Forest have been in their best spell of the season since the Portuguese coach’s appointment in February and have won their last three games in a row, culminating in last week’s semi-final first-leg win.
Villa could be without Onana
Forest’s pragmatic 4-2-3-1 structure ensures there is a strong structure and progression in everything they do and they can be extremely dangerous in transition and on set pieces when their wide attackers get a chance to exploit the one-on-ones. They could also win this tie if Villa can’t find the goals they need to avoid extra-time.
Villa are in mixed form, following up two high-scoring wins with three straight defeats in all competitions. Forest are unbeaten in four matches and won their last Europa League game against Villa with a penalty scored by Chris Wood.
Ollie Watkins is Villa’s talisman up front and scored crucial goals in the quarter-finals. Emiliano Buendía sets up and scores goals, especially in the Europa League, while Igor Jesus can be a threat on the counter for Forest.
Extra-time on the cards
Villa will need at least two goals to avoid extra-time and should have the advantage of home ground and historical superiority to win the game by 2-1 or 2-0. But with Forest in such great form, they could well find a way to score on the road and we’re taking BTTS - Yes at 17/20 as an alternative to the home side.
