- Aston Villa have won three and lost two of their last five fixtures.
- Nottingham Forest have won two and drawn two of their last five.
- Aston Villa have won one and lost one of their last two away fixtures.
Forest are no pushovers at home
Nottingham Forest have only won three of their 15 home games in the Premier League this season (D5, L7), but that does not mean that Aston Villa will be presented with a free hit on Sunday. Forest may have a poor home record, but Villa will face a team with a well organised, disciplined block and a reliable goal threat in Morgan Gibbs-White, who tops the scoring charts for Forest with nine goals in 31 Premier League appearances.
Aston Villa will be the favourites to win this one and, although they have the quality to do so, Villa have suffered disappointing results against Forest in this fixture in recent seasons. Forest have denied Villa victory in their last two home games against the Villains, so there is every chance that the hosts could be a stumbling block for Villa once again.
Two different styles of football
Vitor Pereira has built a Forest side on structure, discipline, ball-denial and counter-attacking since taking the reins in February 2026. Villa, on the other hand, have been playing a different style of football for what feels like a lifetime after Unai Emery took over in November 2022. Villa’s style has remained relatively consistent in that time, but the foundations of their play will be familiar to anyone who has seen Arsenal play in the last decade or so. Emery wants his Villa to dominate the ball, press high and be fluid and flexible in transitions.
This match up should be a fascinating contrast between the two styles and it would not be a surprise if the visitors dominated the possession and Villa are definitely favoured to take all three points, but I don’t think it will be as comfortable as the bookies are suggesting (Villa to win at 8/5).
Villa to edge a cagey affair
I’m expecting a cagey and tight affair here, with Villa’s quality eventually seeing them through to secure the victory. Forest are solid enough to keep the score down and are likely to frustrate the visitors while Villa will have to work hard to unlock the hosts, so under 2.5 goals and both teams to score - no looks a solid play at 11/10.
Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins has scored 9 goals in 30 league games this season, the most of any player in the Villains’ squad, so the Villa attacker will be key to the visitors' chances of taking all three points on Sunday.
Forest are conceding an average of 1.27 goals per home game in the Premier League this season and Aston Villa have scored at the same rate away from home, so that’s what I’m going for in the correct score market.
