- City are unbeaten in their last five matches (W3, D2), winning both of their last two at home.
- Aston Villa, meanwhile, are W2, D1, L2 in their last five, although they did beat Liverpool 4-2 last time out.
- City have averaged 2.41 goals per home game in PL 2025/2026, while Villa have averaged 1.22 per away match.
City dominate at home
Second-placed Manchester City have amassed 74 points from 35 Premier League games this season, but have only won 13 of their 17 home matches (D3, L1), suggesting Aston Villa could get something from this encounter.
Indeed, Villa have been more consistent on the road than at their own ground in 2025-2026, currently sitting fifth in the table with 59 points from 36 matches (W6, D6, L6).
They head into this final-day clash in fine form, having beaten Liverpool 4-2 in the last round of Premier League fixtures, while Andree Jeglertz’s Citizens are unbeaten in their last five (W3, D2) following a routine 3-0 win over Crystal Palace last time out.
There should be little shortage of goals in this clash, with City averaging 2.41 goals per home game and Villa 1.22 per away match.
Free-flowing City vs rigid Villa
Jeglertz, who took charge in July 2025, has seamlessly moulded this City team into an incredibly fluid positional-possession side with inverted full-backs, players rotating between the lines and constant central overloads. Emery, who has been in charge since November 2022, has made them the antithesis of City with a pragmatic, shape-driven approach.
Villa have had immense success with their compact 4-2-3-1 which can form a rigid 4-4-2 mid-block when out of possession. The Villans' strength is their ability to transition lightning-fast on the break when possession is won, as shown in their 4-2 demolition of Liverpool in their latest Premier League outing.
Expect an exciting affair
With the stakes so high and Villa enjoying a mini-revival under Emery, this game could be a lot closer than the odds suggest. The Citizens’ attacking rotations will test Villa’s compactness, and Emery’s structured way of playing could make City pay when they push forward.
Villa have failed to win in their last two trips to Manchester, however, and City’s possession-based play could catch them out on the counter-attack as their full-backs push forward. So we’re taking City to edge this game, but both sides will likely score a goal with the game’s potential for fireworks.
The main man through the middle for City is Erling Haaland, who has scored 26 PL goals in 34 appearances this season, while Jeremy Doku has timed his own run to perfection with three goals in City’s last five games. In Ollie Watkins (12 PL goals in 35 games), Villa have their own main man, who will be crucial to their counter-attacking play in this encounter.
The odds reflect a City win perfectly, but there’s great value in backing Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score - Yes in this one.
