- Villa are favourites to win the match (33/50) with Lille the outsiders at 71/20.
- Villa are 1 - 0 up on aggregate and favourites to progress to the Europa League quarter-finals.
- Lille are battling for European places in 5th - 6th place in Ligue 1 but need a European result to keep their season interesting.
Familiar opponents and even head-to-head record
After an assured and disciplined away win in the first leg of this Europa League Round of 16 tie, Aston Villa are 1-0 up on Lille and favourites to make it to the quarter-finals.
The Villans will have been happy to return from the Stade Pierre-Mauroy with a one-goal lead after an even contest against the French side.
Lille and Villa have an even head-to-head record in European knockout ties with one win apiece prior to this season, with both games being tight and cagey affairs. This week’s second leg should be no different with both sides now in major European and domestic competitions in the midst of intense league campaigns.
Villa’s trigger-pressing and Lille’s possession play
Unai Emery sets up Villa to press from the front with a compact 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2.
Their trigger-pressing style is designed to win the ball back in advantageous positions and they have the quality to transition quickly to vertical play, catching the opposition off guard in doing so.
The European specialist Emery will see this tie as a chance to prove his credentials to the English public once more and his Villans are currently inside the top four of the Premier League with Champions League aspirations. But a run to the latter stages of this Europa League is also an historic opportunity for this young club.
Lille’s flexible formation and talented young stars
Bruno Génésio’s Lille are a side that change shape during matches, typically playing a 4-2-3-1 but flexible enough to adapt to both possession dominance and the counter-attack.
The French outfit are solid at the back thanks to the organising presence of Benjamin André in the midfield, while Félix Correia is a talented playmaker who loves to deliver the ball for striker Olivier Giroud, who is an ace in the air and a veteran savvy finisher up front.
On the other side, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson is a creative force from midfield and can provide the pace and trickery that can unlock defences in quick transitions.
Villa’s greater depth and home advantage
Lille are a good side and a victory over the Villans here would be their biggest scalp in Europe in years and would provide a massive boost to their season.
However, Villa’s home advantage, aggregate lead and greater squad depth will likely see them through to the next round in what is likely to be a cagey, tactical battle.
Stalemate looking likely
The home side are the clear favourites and Emery’s side have shown in recent games that they are a class above their opponents in this competition, as the away win at Lille demonstrated and the defeat to Manchester United in the Premier League didn't change that.
The over 2.5 goals market is priced up at 83/100, but with both teams to score at 77/100 I’m happy to take the under, with the game looking more like a cagey draw or a single-goal Villa win.
Ollie Watkins scored the winner in the first leg and is a constant threat to score when games turn into knockout matches, while Emiliano Martínez is a leader between the sticks and tends to raise his game on big European nights.
