- Aston Villa have won two of their last three home Premier League games.
- Sunderland have won four, drawn five and lost seven of their 16 away fixtures in Premier League 2025/2026.
- Aston Villa have only conceded 15 goals in 16 Premier League home games, an average of 0.94 per game.
Villa Park a fortress for the Villans
Aston Villa drew 1-1 away to Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, and followed that with a 3-1 win against Bologna in the UEFA Europa League.
Villa have been consistent at the top end of the table this season, sitting 4th in the Premier League with 55 points from 32 games, and have been particularly formidable at home in Villa Park, where they have won 10, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their 16 home matches.
Unai Emery’s tactical discipline has instilled a real control and balance to the Villans’ style of play, where measured possession is used to build up attacks, and the team’s positional discipline allows them to keep the ball and keep opponents out.
They have the ability to press vertically when there is space to exploit, and the pace of Leon Bailey on the wing adds another dimension to Villa’s attacking play, making them particularly dangerous in transition.
Black Cats on a streak
Sunderland, meanwhile, sit 10th in the Premier League after picking up 46 points from 32 games, a solid but unspectacular performance that reflects a degree of inconsistency in their play this season.
The Black Cats, however, have recorded back-to-back victories ahead of Sunday’s match, with a gutsy 1-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur following an impressive 2-1 away win over Newcastle United.
Regis Le Bris has installed a high-tempo, high-pressing system on Sunderland since taking the helm in July 2024, with Jack Clarke’s dribbling abilities and ability to create numerical overloads on the flanks a key element of the system.
Sunderland’s away form in 2025/2026 has been patchy
Dan Neil provides a key link between defence and attack and has been integral to Sunderland’s pressing game, while Brian Brobbey has been their top scorer in the Premier League this term, scoring six goals in 25 appearances and providing a focal point to their attack.
Sunderland are unbeaten in their last three away games, winning two and drawing one, but their form away from home this term has been shaky, with just four wins from 16 trips in the Premier League 2025/2026.
Emery to outsmart Le Bris
The 1-1 draw between these two sides in the Premier League 2025/2026 suggests a competitive and close match should be expected when they lock horns again, although Emery’s influence on Villa’s game should see them edge this one.
Both sides are in good form with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five games in all competitions, so it should be a close match, and the price of 16/25 for an Aston Villa win seems about right for the favourites.
Villa’s control should see them through
Aston Villa have only let in 15 goals in 16 home Premier League fixtures, while Sunderland have conceded 22 goals in the same number of trips away. Villa’s organisation and control should keep Sunderland at arm’s length on Sunday, and the odds for ‘Both Teams to Score - No’ at 9/10 suggest they will keep the Black Cats off the scoresheet.
Douglas Luiz is the central cog in Villa’s build-up play, controlling the tempo of the game and providing a steel in the middle of the park, and his presence could be the key to an Aston Villa victory here.
With Villa’s solid defence at home and Sunderland’s dodgy away form, Under 2.5 goals looks a good bet at 17/20.
