- Bury Town’s home form has been stable and solid with the Shakers winning seven, drawing seven and losing five of 19 games played at the Gams Road Ground.
- Bury Town have conceded just 21 goals in 19 home league games this season.
- Stamford have lost each of their last three away fixtures.
Bury Town’s consistency at home should be enough to edge a close contest
Bury Town currently sit 12th in the Southern League Premier Division Central table with 54 points from 39 games. The Shakers have had a solid campaign in the mid-table and have generally been good at home but poor on the road.
Graham Drury’s team, meanwhile, are 17th in the same division on 39 points from 38 fixtures, a result of spending the majority of the season in the relegation zone. Stamford’s away form has been particularly concerning with the visitors having won just three of their 19 away fixtures this season (D1, L15) and shipping an average of 2.05 goals per game on the road.
Stamford have a solid structure but are prone to away-day wobbles
Stamford have been a classic example of a team that knows its identity this season. Drury is an experienced manager who has built a team that sits compact, defends in blocks and tries to pinch goals on the break or via set-pieces.
However, a structure and work-rate identity only takes a side so far in this division and Stamford have lacked a finishing touch on the away day, which has cost them points.
Bury Town have been more fluid this term with Cole Skuse instilling a possession-first system that is high-pressing and flexible between a 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. They've recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in their last five league games, which is a mixed bag of results that includes a 2-2 draw away at Harborough Town, a 1-1 draw at home with Worcester and a 3-1 win away at Leiston.
Bury’s better home record and Stamford’s travel woes makes hosts favourites
Bury Town are the odds-on favourites for this one at 17/20 with Stamford marked up at 257/100 and the draw at 64/25.
The gulf in price does seem generous given that Bury are having a better season overall, but we’re taking the hosts here because they have the better home form and the visitors have a lousy away record.
Over 2.5 goals is also a favourite at 13/20, which is a big price for a game that Stamford should be looking to keep tight. The value could lie in the fact that Bury are a positive side and will likely push Stamford into conceding chances, while the Waders are also capable of making the odd burst forward if the game is open.
Stamford can’t be ruled out of scoring on the counter either, so there is potential for goals in this one despite the fact the home team are clearly the better team on the balance of play.
