- Harborough Town are unbeaten in their last five league matches (W3, D2) and are chasing promotion
- Stamford have won their last two games in a row and last two at home, but have won only one of the last three encounters
- Harborough Town have the best away record in the Southern League Premier Division Central (W14, D3, L3)
Harborough Town the obvious favourites
Harborough Town have taken their eye off the ball in the race for promotion in the Southern League Premier Division Central, but a return of three wins and two draws from their last five league games, including a 3-1 away victory at Halesowen Town and a 1-1 draw at home to Bishop’s Stortford, have kept the leaders in a commanding position.
Harborough Town can take no risks when they travel to Stamford and claim all three points on Saturday as they are now just six points shy of 100 from 41 games and are at odds of 11/20, while the hosts are 93/25. Town should win this matchup between a promotion-chasing side and a well-established non-league club.
Stamford can’t afford to sit back and hope
Stamford are flying under Graham Dury’s pragmatic leadership with the coach’s focus on getting his team compact, defence-first, patient, organised and with a tempo of their own since taking charge in 2015. Results have been solid of late with the Whits scoring three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five league contests, but they still sit 17th with 46 points from as many games as league leaders, Harborough Town, who have 94 points.
Stamford have been good at home this season, relative to some other results, with nine wins, five draws and six defeats in 20 home league games. They have conceded 25 times, but have been rock-solid in their two most recent matches - a 4-0 win over Banbury United and a 3-0 victory at Royston Town.
Game of chess
The contrast in approaches of these two teams should make for a fascinating game of ‘control versus contain’ on Saturday. Harborough Town will try to dictate the pace and use their engine room to push Stamford back and try to catch them on the break. In contrast, Stamford will sit back and look to break the rhythm of the visitors and try to punish them either on the counter or from set-pieces.
Devon Kelly-Evans is the pivot in a midfield that has been able to control the pace and tempo of games for Harborough, while industrious wide players have been hard to play against. Leon Lobjoit has been Stamford’s main outlet and has three of the team’s last nine goals in the previous five matches. Backing over 2.5 goals here at 11/25 seems crazy, but we think it has to be a goal fest given the stakes.
