Dunfermline

vs

Arbroath

Tips, Stats and Odds

Likely League Leaders

Dunfermline have 50 points from 35 games and sit 4th in the Championship 2025/2026 table, one point behind Arbroath in 3rd. Neil Lennon has implemented a strong system with his players since his appointment in March 2025. The Pars have been well organised, playing a hybrid of 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3, that prioritises playing on the ball, building from the back and playing with energy through the thirds. Dunfermline have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last 5 in all competitions. They’ve recently seen off Queen’s Park 2-0 away in the league and knocked Falkirk FC out of the Scottish FA Cup on penalties. The Pars have enough to trouble Arbroath on Friday, as they’ve consistently had a solid, possession-based game plan in the second half of the season.

Pars more likely

Andy Tod is a big game player and has been deadly up front this season with 13 goals in 32 appearances in the Championship 2025/2026. Arbroath’s talisman, Findlay Marshall, has 12 goals in 35 league games, scoring twice in his last 5 appearances. Arbroath have been up and down recently, winning one, drawing one and losing three of their last 5. Colin Hamilton has made the Smokies hard to beat with his compact 4-2-3-1 system since his arrival at the helm in September 2024, prioritising organisation, defensive solidity, wing play and set-piece play on the counter.

Dunfermline are the favourites

We’re going for a home win here, with the odds of 57/50 reflecting the fact that Dunfermline are the more likely winners. Over 2.5 goals is our 2nd prediction at 53/50, and Dunfermline have scored 1.41 goals per home game in the Championship 2025/2026, while Arbroath have scored 0.94 and conceded 1.24 per away game this season. Both Teams to Score - No is our 3rd and final prediction at 22/25, and Arbroath have no choice but to sit deep on Friday and Dunfermline will dominate the ball. The Smokies may not have the tools to create enough to score a goal, especially away from home.