- Qarabag are in excellent form, having won their last five consecutive games without conceding a wobble.
- Qarabag are generally a compact, disciplined team with an ability to transition into goal danger quickly and effectively.
- CSKA Sofia are coming into this game after two consecutive wins, following their 1-0 away defeat to Ludogorets Razgrad.
Qarabag are on a high
The odds favour the hosts here, with Qarabag set at 18/25, CSKA Sofia at 18/5 and the draw at 53/20. A lot of the value is in Qarabag because they are in much better form than CSKA right now and have the home advantage. However, there are a few reasons to side with CSKA in this encounter and get a much better return for your money.
Qurban Qurbanov has been in charge of Qarabag since July 2008, which is almost unheard of in modern football, and his side are flying right now. Across all competitions, they have won seven, drawn one and lost two in their last 10 matches, while at home, they are 3-0-1. The last three results read a 4-0 away win over WSG Tirol, a 3-0 home win over IF Vestri and a 3-0 away win over IF Vestri.
Zakaria Sawo is Qarabag's spark in UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026, with two goals in two matches and his ability to finish early is a dangerous weapon when his side can get forward in transition.
CSKA can cause an upset
Hristo Yanev has sharpened the Bulgarian outfit since he took the helm on 24 September 2025, and they have also been in good form. CSKA have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last 10 games in all competitions, while away from home, they have won three and lost two of their last five.
The last three matches have been a 1-0 defeat away to Ludogorets Razgrad, a 3-2 win at home to Derry City and a 2-1 away win over Derry City. Ioannis Pittas has scored three times in their two UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026 matches, so he is bearing a big burden in the final third.
The matchup
CSKA have conceded eight goals at an average of 1.60 per away match across all competitions, so they are allowing Qarabag enough space to carve out opportunities. CSKA are not as one-dimensional as the Azeri side, who can be a bit one-paced at times and often rely on quick vertical play through the centre and wide overloads.
Yanev's men can play controlled possession football at times, but they have the capability to switch to a quicker vertical game when they need to, and their pressing game can be more aggressive when they feel they have control of the game. This will be a chess match in the engine room, with Qarabag's mid-block and double pivot against CSKA's wider combinations and pressing system.
If the visitors can control that area of the pitch, they could drag Qarabag out of their favoured shape and the result may fall their way. Qarabag are the better team on the day, though, and should have the quality to find the winner. Under 2.5 goals at 17/20 and Both Teams To Score - No at 22/25 make the most sense here, with a 1-0 or 2-0 home win for Qarabag the only selection to fit the market.
