- Fulham have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five competitive matches.
- AFC Wimbledon have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five matches.
- Fulham have conceded three goals in five home matches this season.
Cottagers and Dons to serve up a lively cup clash
Fulham are a 19/100 favourite to beat League One side AFC Wimbledon at Craven Cottage and rightly so, but there is some value in the match result market for the Dons or the draw.
Also, we're going to be bold enough to fancy a home win, which should appeal to those that believe that Fulham have a little too much quality for their opponents to pull off a cup shock.
The Cottagers have three wins, four draws and three defeats in their last ten competitive matches, which isn't a bad run when we consider they are playing at the top end of European football.
The Cottagers were 1-0 winners over VfB Stuttgart and 2-2 with Malaga CF in their last three friendlies before coming up just short against Crystal Palace in a 1-2 home defeat.
Arbeloa has got Fulham playing a more up-tempo style of 4-3-3 where the high pressing, tempo of the game and fast vertical breaks are the main attributes.
That will surely see Wimbledon pinned back for long spells on Thursday, and we feel that has to work in Fulham's favour.
Johnnie Jackson has set up the Dons as a compact, workrate-driven side that will sit deep, win second balls and make set pieces their main route into the game.
The Dons drew 1-1 with Newport County in the EFL Cup and won on penalties, which was followed up by a 3-0 thumping away to Huddersfield in League One.
Fulham have the quality to see this one through
Wimbledon's recent run of one win, no draws and three defeats across their last four competitive away matches illustrates the gap in class. The Dons will do everything they can to stay compact, win second balls and stay narrow but it is going to be tough to keep Fulham out. An under 2.5 goals bet is still available at a healthy 33/20, but we think this is likely to be more of a cup tie than a cagey clash with AFC Wimbledon chasing a surprise result. Fulham have only conceded three times at home across all competitions, so a 1X2 win and BTTS no is the correct play here. Aron Sasu has been Wimbledon's sharpest forward recently with two goals in the Dons' last five games, and he's bagged two of their three goals in their last five overall.
