- AFC Wimbledon have failed to win their last 5 home games (1 draw, 4 defeats).
- Newport County FC have lost only 1 of their last 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat).
Wimbledon and Newport set to battle it out
AFC Wimbledon are the bookies' favourites at 67/100, with Newport County FC coming in at 73/20 and the draw at 29/10 for Saturday's EFL Cup clash at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, England. We'll take the visitors to keep it tight and make it a scrappy affair at 73/20.
With the hosts winless in 5 at their home stadium (1 draw, 4 defeats), and the Exiles losing just 1 of their last 5, it's only logical to suggest that the visitors will at least avoid defeat on Saturday.
The head-to-head record is very tight with the last 5 meetings split 1-1 with 3 draws and neither side has held bragging rights over the other for some time. The Dons won the last meeting 2-1 away in League Two, 2024/2025 but have failed to beat Newport in their last 2 games at Plough Lane.
Dons have been blunted at home
Wimbledon's form has been mixed-to-poor heading into this cup clash with only 1 win in their last 5, and they've failed to get going in consecutive 0-0 and 3-2 at home to Norwich City and away to QPR respectively.
The hosts average just 0.20 goals per game at their home stadium (all competitions), where they have scored only one goal across 5 games. In contrast, Newport have a modest but workable away record of 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 5 trips and average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded, so they will fancy they can open Wimbledon up.
Johnnie Jackson's side have been set up to play in a versatile 3-5-2/3-4-3 system with the wing-backs stretching the play and creating structure in attack. Chris Todd has Newport drilled in a compact shape that will sit deep, protect the box, win second balls and counter in numbers.
Exiles can nick it
With both teams to score in the match backed by the bookmakers, the most natural play here is to take the home side to nick it in a game that could go to the wire. Aron Sasu has been the spark for Wimbledon with 2 of their 4 goals scored in the last 5 matches coming from his boot and he looks their most likely scorer.
But the value lies with the away side as Newport have been the better of the two in recent weeks with 3 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat in their last 5, so they can keep this competitive. Bobby Kamwa has been Newport's sharpest edge with 3 goals in his last 5 games, the most in the squad, and he is the most likely to nick a goal here.
