- Home form: In home games in all competitions, Gainsborough Trinity have won 1, scoring 1.00 goals and allowing 1.75 goals.
- Away form: In away games in all competitions, Leamington have won 1, scoring 1.20 and allowing 2.80 goals.
- Head-to-head: The last meeting in the FA Cup Qualifying at Leamington's ground ended 1-1, a replay result looks most likely.
The Brakes need to be more direct
Gainsborough Trinity come into their FA Cup qualification replay with the Holy Blues as slight favorites at 1.8, however, I think this game could be a bit of a dogfight and it's a tough decision between the Holy Blues, the Brakes and the draw.
Gainsborough's last 5 results and Leamington's last 5 are similar, so there is precious little between the two clubs going into Tuesday's game at The Northolme. However, Leamington's results over the past 10 games are much shakier, while the hosts' form book has been more respectable.
Brakes have a bit of a boom-or-bust feel about them
Form and momentum
So, on paper, this contest is very evenly balanced but the hosts have just enough momentum to edge the contest, or make it close enough to go to a replay. Gainsborough Trinity's recent run of 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats in all competitions is keeping them in the mix, but they need to go up another gear to get past a side. Leamington FC's three most recent results, a 3-1 home win against Ilkeston, 3-1 away defeat to Bishop's Stortford and 1-1 away draw with Gainsborough, have highlighted the boom-or-bust nature of this team.
Tactics
Leamington's boss Scott Easterlow needs to be a little more direct on Tuesday and get a few more balls into the box, while also ensuring that his team are alive to the counter attack. Gainsborough boss Russ Wilcox has been adaptable in his approach, keeping things simple and pragmatic, setting his side up to dominate possession and create chances through overloads on the left, particularly when the game is open.
Leamington will try to stifle those attacks and force Gainsborough into a more open contest, where they will be dangerous on the counter and from set pieces.
Two big goal threats on show
So, I'm going for a Gainsborough win, but the draw should be considered in the double chance bet and the odds nudge toward a narrow Gainsborough win or a tight cup replay-style battle.
- Lewis Butroid has been the spark for the Holy Blues of late, grabbing 2 goals in their last 5 games, while Kyle Finn has been the danger man for the Brakes, netting 2 of their 4 goals in the same period.
- Gainsborough's two most recent games were a 0-2 home loss to Avro FC and the 1-1 away draw against Leamington, so they are a little patchy, but they are battlers, and if they can win the aerial battles, their possession-based shape and quality of left-sided crosses should trouble Leamington's back line.
