- Grimsby Town have won three of their last five matches, including a 5-0 win at home to Barrow and a 2-0 victory at Crawley Town.
- Crewe Alexandra have won three of their last five, including a 1-0 home win over Salford City in their most recent match.
Goals expected in a tight and tense play-off play-off
One point separates 10th-placed Grimsby Town (65 points from 40 matches) from 8th-placed Crewe Alexandra (66 points from 42) in League Two.
A match between two such close rivals on Saturday should see a real scrap, but there’s no doubt that the home side are in the better form right now, so David Artell’s men will be fancied by most to take the points at 37/50.
Artell’s side have been in top form lately, winning three of their last five, while Crewe Alexandra have won just three, drawn one and lost one of their previous five.
Grimsby’s goals per game average has been boosted significantly by a flurry of goals in their recent matches, especially the 5-0 hammering they dished out to Barrow, but they have been good value for their points at home this term, winning ten, drawing five and losing six in League Two 2025/2026.
Both teams have the firepower to hit the target
Grimsby Town have scored 1.62 goals per home match in League Two 2025/2026 while Crewe Alexandra have scored an average of 1.33 goals on their travels.
The Mariners have a red-hot striker on their books in Jaze Kabia, who has scored 13 goals in 40 league appearances in 2025/2026. He has bagged four of Grimsby’s last nine and should get a few chances to add to that tally against a disciplined, but not necessarily impenetrable, Crewe Alexandra defence.
Crewe have their own talisman in Josh March, who has 11 goals in 36 appearances in League Two 2025/2026. But the Alex’s main threat will be in their ability to play possession football at a steady pace, which will surely test the ability of the Mariners to maintain their high press for 90 minutes.
Lee Bell’s men like to keep the ball in the opposition’s half, but they also have the structure and discipline to keep things tight and frustrating for their opponents, which could be a big factor in this contest.
Grimsby Town’s pace and aggression should tell
We’re going for a home victory here, but both teams to score - No at 1/1 is a really good price for what is essentially a 50/50 match. The stats suggest that only one team will break through, but given the importance of the match, both are likely to be going for it, making the over 2.5 goals market at 4/5 a safer play.
Grimsby Town are a high-energy team that can counter-attack with real pace and should be able to disrupt Crewe’s more deliberate build-up play by pressing them hard. The Alex are disciplined and have the ability to control the pace of the game, but we’re backing the hosts to win this one by the narrowest of margins.
