- Necaxa have won two of the last five fixtures between the teams, Mazatlán once, with two draws.
- Necaxa have a superior overall head-to-head record in all competitions.
- Necaxa have home advantage and the slightly better form, but Mazatlán will be motivated to prove themselves with their club’s future uncertain.
Mild weather in Aguascalientes sets the stage
Necaxa have 13 points on the board and Mazatlán 11 in the Liga MX Clausura 2026 standings, which makes this matchup a mid-table battle with a win for either side a massive boost. Martín Varini’s side have had an up-and-down run of results in recent weeks and need to build on their most recent result, a 3-0 home win over Tijuana, with another positive performance against the Pescadores.
Mazatlán have been inconsistent in their last five matches, including a 1-4 defeat away to Atlético San Luis, a 2-1 away win at Santos Laguna and a 1-0 home win over Pachuca. Sergio Bueno has done a decent job during a tumultuous season, but they will be extra motivated to perform for the fans as their franchise’s fate is being decided.
Midfield battle likely to decide the result
Necaxa are the favourites at 33/50, with Mazatlán 37/10 and the draw 59/20, which seems a bit tight to us as the home side should rightly be much closer to 2/1 for this one given their home advantage and recent upturn in form. The goals markets are pretty close with Over 2.5 at 13/20 and BTTS at 31/50 appealing, as both sides are better at attacking than defending.
Martín Varini’s Necaxa side have an attractive football philosophy and tend to dominate possession by controlling tempo and creating overloads in midfield areas in either 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formations. J. Ruiz is the team’s leading goal scorer, but other players like Tomás Badaloni and J. Carranza have chipped in with important goals for Necaxa.
Mazatlán like to set up in a compact block, defend with their players compact and stop counter attacks as best as they can, but try to break quickly when they have the ball and can be dangerous with their wingers and pressing. Josué Ovalle is their main man up front but defender Facundo Almada has been providing a surprise contribution to their goal tally so far, while Yoel Bárcenas has provided some creativity in the middle of the park.
Mazatlán may struggle to break down Necaxa’s defence and force a goal, but they can make this a tight contest and we are tipping Necaxa to nick it.
