- Toluca are 5th in Liga MX Clausura 2026 with 27 points, well into the top six.
- Mazatlán are 17th, with 11 points, struggling to escape the relegation places in their final season in Liga MX.
Toluca are title contenders, Mazatlán are in their ‘farewell’ season
Toluca are 23/50 favourites to beat 493/100 long shots Mazatlan FC in their Liga MX 2025-2026 fixture on Thursday and we will take the visitors to justify the short odds to win this clash of styles. Antonio Mohamed’s side are on an unbeaten run of five matches in all competitions and have recently thumped Necaxa 5-1 and Pumas 4-2, while Mazatlan have won only one of their last five and were beaten 3-1 by Pumas and 2-0 by América in recent games.
Toluca are one of the most positive teams in Liga MX, playing a high-tempo style, pressing for goals and always looking forward with their full backs and wide forwards, but especially their inverted wingers in their 4-2-3-1 system. Paulinho, the team’s top scorer, is the most clinical and creative, but Helinho and Jorge Gallardo are both capable of providing chances and goals. Toluca are without Marcel Ruiz, the talented playmaker who picked up a long-term ACL injury recently, but Mohamed’s team have hardly noticed thanks to their depth.
Mazatlán are a very different kind of team to Toluca, who are a model of pragmatism and organisation that is the trademark of Mohamed’s teams. Sergio Bueno has been trying to keep them afloat since taking charge in January 2026, but the club's transition has taken its toll and he has struggled to stabilize the squad. Facundo Almada and Édgar Bárcenas, the team’s key attacking players, offer set-piece danger and counter-attacking outlets.
Toluca should have enough quality to secure the win
The contrast in styles should make this a classic battle of attack versus block with the game in Toluca’s hands. They have scored twice as many goals as their opponents in recent meetings, so we are taking Over 2.5 goals at 12/25 with both teams to score at 16/25, as this fixture usually delivers. Mazatlán should benefit from the home support and desperation in their ‘swansong’ season in Liga MX, but Toluca have coped well away from home this season.
Paulinho is also in contention to win the Golden Boot in the Liga MX and will want to continue his great form while Jaziel Ovalle is Mazatlán’s main goal threat with three or four to his name.
