- Toluca are winners in recent trips to Pumas and Juárez.
- Pachuca have won home games in Clausura, beating Tigres, Necaxa and Puebla.
- The last five Liga MX meetings between these sides have produced draws and narrow wins for both sides.
Two very different systems in Liga MX showdown
The clash between Pachuca and Toluca on Sunday should be a fascinating tactical battle as Pachuca press high and try to control the tempo against a Toluca side that is happy to sit in and counterattack.
Esteban Solari’s Pachuca are a pro-active, possession-based side that like to defend compactly and press as high up the pitch as possible, while Antonio Mohamed’s team are very flexible in their 4-2-3-1 system, playing disciplined mid-blocks to perfection and being deadly on the break.
With Mohamed’s mastery of tactics and squad balance, Toluca are the benchmark in Liga MX right now and are a slight favourite for Sunday’s game at 9/10 compared to Pachuca’s 53/20 and the draw at 27/10.
Pachuca have home advantage and goals in them
Although recent head-to-heads have been tightly contested, it is the visitors who have been the more impressive side over the previous month and have the squad depth to sustain another title defence.
Pachuca are in the upper third of the Clausura with about 20 points from 10 games and, even if they miss the top three by a point or two, home advantage should keep them in contention for a direct quarterfinal berth.
However, a win for Toluca here would keep them in the thick of top-three contention and keep the momentum going for the champions. And with Paulinho on their team they look the more likely winners of this fixture at 9/10.
Mohamed’s side have enjoyed an impressive recent run, notching away wins and keeping multiple clean sheets in their last five matches. Pachuca have the better home record, but both teams will be close to full strength with no major injury concerns ahead of this mid-season clash.
Both teams to score is a top bet at Estadio Hidalgo
Backing BTTS - Yes is our main bet for the match at Estadio Hidalgo, where Pachuca have been very solid this season and will face a Toluca team that has been strong away in the Clausura.
Both squads have plenty of attacking quality and Pachuca’s home record makes them a tempting price to pull off an upset that would make this a very interesting game indeed.
The game will be played in comfortable, mild conditions, which will suit both sides and their respective styles of play. Pachuca’s Salomón Rondón is their focal point up top and the Venezuelan has scored the winner in each of their recent home successes.
Meanwhile, Paulinho has been Toluca’s main goalscorer in the Clausura, giving them the goal power to back up their excellent defensive record. Alexis Vega and the attacking midfielders create space for Paulinho to operate in while also being a goal threat from deep. But Toluca’s best work is usually done on the counter-attack.
Pachuca play a more open game, but Solari’s team are solid defensively at home and can counterattack as well. So we’re going to back BTTS - Yes at 31/50 and over 2.5 goals at 7/10 for this interesting contest between two attacking sides that have a history of each other in Liga MX.
