- Rayo Vallecano have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings (no draws)
- Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in two home games across all current competitions (Won 1, Drawn 1) and have conceded just 0.50 goals per match at home.
Basque side arrive in better shape
Rayo Vallecano are a shadow of their 2025/2026 best in this 2026-2027 LaLiga season opener, but home advantage should see them get the three points in this Thursday night clash against Deportivo Alavés at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
Rayo have won just one of their last five in all competitions (Lost 4), but their last three results have all been friendlies, so we shouldn't read too much into those results. Those three games were a 2-1 extra-time loss to Feyenoord Rotterdam, a 2-3 win over Royal Charleroi SC and a 3-0 defeat to Ipswich Town, so it's fair to say Rayo's momentum is blunted.
Alavés have been in better form, winning three of their last five and arriving on a three-game winning streak. Alavés' last three matches have been a 0-1 win at Girona FC, a 3-0 victory over Castellon and a 1-1 draw at Racing Santander which they went on to win 7-6 on penalties, so like Rayo, there's little to read into their form.
Rayo have a head-to-head edge
Rayo are the team with the head-to-head advantage, however. They have won four of the last five meetings in all competitions (no draws) and beat Alavés 2-1 away in LaLiga 2025/2026. Alavés have failed to win on their last two visits to Vallecas and Rayo are in the habit of beating them.
Benat San Jose has got Rayo set up in a proactive 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 system that is built around controlled possession, vertical punches and aggressive counter-pressing. Quique Sanchez Flores has got Alavés drilled into a compact, structure-first shape, either a 5-3-2 or a 3-5-2, that is disciplined in keeping blocks.
This is a classic Rayo press against Alavés block contest, so whoever scores first could set the tone for the night.
Swerve the draw in a cagey affair
Rayo are a 1/1 favourite to beat Alavés, who are priced at 3/1 to come away with all the spoils and the draw is 21/10, so the market is definitely leaning towards a home win. However, Alavés are clearly the stronger side in this contest and should be able to keep things close enough to nick a point.
The Under 2.5 goals market at 12/25 and Both Teams to Score - No at 31/50 look the best two options here. Rayo have scored 1.50 and conceded 0.50 goals at home across all of their current competitions and this will be a cagey contest in which the first goal could set the rhythm of the night.
