- Recent home form: Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in 2 home games in all competitions (W1, D1).
- Recent away form: Deportivo Alaves are unbeaten in 4 away games in all competitions (W3, D1).
- Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano have won 4 of their last 5 matches against Alaves in all competitions (W4, D0, L1).
Vallecano v Alaves can be close and cagey
Recent friendlies
Rayo Vallecano's last three games have been a 2-1 extra-time defeat to Feyenoord Rotterdam, a 2-3 win over Royal Charleroi SC and a 3-0 loss to Ipswich Town, all in friendly action. Alavés' last three have been a 0-1 win at Girona FC, a 3-0 victory over Castellon and a 1-1 draw at Racing Santander in which they won 7-6 in a penalty shootout, also all friendlies.
Market and form
Rayo are 2.0 for Thursday's game at home with Alavés 4.0 and the draw 3.1, so the market is giving the home edge to the hosts, who have won four of the last five matches against their opponents. The visitors are in better nick than Rayo, having won three of their last five and coming into this game on the back of a three-game winning streak.
Vallecano's recent record of four defeats in their last five is not ideal preparation for the start of the 2026-2027 LaLiga campaign and there is an element of risk about backing them at a similar price to Alavés. But there is enough in the stats and recent results to suggest a home win or draw and for this contest to be a low-scoring affair.
Home edge gives Rayo the verdict
Quique Sanchez Flores has drilled Alavés into a compact, structure-first shape that can be a 5-3-2 or a 3-5-2 depending on the game. The Babazorros sit deep and defend in numbers when out of possession, but are disciplined and clinical enough to break through on the counter-attack when required.
Benat San Jose has Rayo set up in a proactive 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 system that is built on controlled possession, vertical punches and aggressive counter-pressing. Alavés are better right now, but Rayo Vallecano have a strong head-to-head record and a home advantage for what will be a fast-paced matchup.
Rayo should win this match, but it could be close so the first goal could dictate the rhythm of the night. Alavés are capable of keeping this game close, but Rayo's recent dominance in this fixture means the home side should ultimately get the win.
Alaves can grab a goal at Vallecas
Rayo score an average of 1.50 goals per home game across all current competitions and are very efficient in the attacking third so they should get enough chances to win on Thursday. But Deportivo Alavés score an average of 2.75 and concede an average of 2.00 on the road across all comps, so they can grab a goal or two if Rayo open the game up.
The under 2.5 goals line at 1.48 and Both Teams to Score – No at 1.62 look too short to support in this spot, but do point to a close and somewhat cagey contest at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, where Deportivo Alavés have not won on their last two visits.
- Sergio Camello has bagged two of Rayo's six goals in their last five games and is their sharpest edge in the penalty area.
- Meanwhile, Mariano Diaz has two to his name during that run for Deportivo Alavés, who have scored five.
