- Japan have won four and drawn one of their last five matches, beating Iceland 1-0 and holding the Dutch to a 2-2 draw in their opening Group F fixture.
- Tunisia are rock bottom of Group F after being thumped 5-1 by Sweden, their third successive defeat in all competitions.
- Tunisia have conceded 11 and scored just once in their last three defeats.
Japan on the up
Japan are the clear favourites to win this Group F clash at Monterrey Stadium, Mexico and they should have enough quality and cohesion to see off Tunisia on Sunday.
Hajime Moriyasu's side have played some excellent football in the build-up to this tournament and they look well capable of getting out of Group F. They beat Iceland 1-0 in their opener and then held the Netherlands to a 2-2 draw.
Moriyasu has had the time to build a team with a clear identity, which is the perfect combination of fluidity and discipline, using a back-three system with high-energy wing-backs, vertical passing lines and an ability to press and disrupt teams into turning the ball over.
Eagles of Carthage are in trouble
Japan's form of four wins and a draw from their last five is a problem for Tunisia, who have won just one, drawn one and lost three of their five previous fixtures in all competitions.
It is a worrying time to be an Eagles of Carthage supporter, but the appointment of Hervé Renard as manager on June 16th 2026 can at least be seen as a move in the right direction.
Renard is an expert at installing defensive discipline and getting teams to be pragmatic with their counter attacks and set-pieces, so expect Tunisia to sit deep and try to frustrate the Japanese.
The Eagles of Carthage have enough attacking quality to score in this game, with Omar Rekik, their most potent weapon after he scored their only goal of the tournament so far. However, Tunisia are unlikely to have much of the ball and may have to rely on set pieces to get a foothold in the game.
Nippon's attacking flair could be the difference
Japan have Daichi Kamada, who leads the line well and can score goals. The German-based midfielder is a good option for an anytime goal on Sunday after hitting the net against the Netherlands. However, Koki Ogawa has been the best player on the field in both games so far and he has one assist to show for his efforts. The youngster has the technique and vision to create space in a game where it is likely to be very tight. We're supporting Japan to win this game because they are a better team with more quality and because Japan's 2-0 lead in the head-to-head record (Friendly International Matches 2024/2025) does not account for the fact they are much more cohesive as a unit. The 57/50 odds for both teams to score look favourable given the evidence from Japan's games so far that they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet and Tunisia will be desperate for a point. However, 28/25 is a solid price for Over 2.5 goals in what should be an exciting game if Japan can unlock the Eagles of Carthage defence.
