- Netherlands have a slight advantage over Tunisia with 1 point from 1 game, whereas Tunisia are at the rock bottom of Group F with 0 points after their 5-1 opening defeat to Sweden.
- Netherlands are in better form than Tunisia overall (W2, D2, L1 in their last 5 matches in all competitions) and were competitive in their opening World Cup draw against Japan.
- Netherlands have scored in their last 3 consecutive games and can outgun Tunisia with a more reliable goalscorer and playmaker.
Tunisia have hit a rough patch
The Netherlands are clear favorites when they face off at Kansas City Stadium on Thursday and that seems about right considering the recent performances of both sides.
Hervé Renard's men have lost their last 3 games in all competitions, the most recent of which was a 5-1 thrashing at the hands of Sweden in their Group F opener. The Eagles of Carthage have shown their usual stubborn streak in some tough fixtures this year, but they've been exposed defensively and conceded 10 goals across their last two away games.
Renard is a pragmatic manager and has set up Tunisia in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation, usually sitting deep and waiting to counter. They have a solid core of players, but they've been caught out with a lack of cohesion in this tournament, as well as by the pace of opponents. They press selectively and are a low-tempo side, but Hannibal Mejbri's creativity from central areas (1 assist) is an encouraging sign.
Oranje have good possession, Tunisia press less
The Dutch have more all-round quality and should have enough to win this game if they play to their best. Ronald Koeman has developed a fluid team that can play a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, with high pressing and vertical play from wide areas their greatest strengths. They look far more likely to dominate possession in this fixture, which Tunisia should make a slow paced and frustrating game for the Oranje.
Omar Rekik will be their chief goal threat with 1 goal in the World Cup already, but the Oranje are a more clinical side, with Virgil van Dijk having scored 2 goals in their last 5 and Ryan Gravenberch their creative engine with 2 assists in 1 World Cup game. The draw at 21/5 looks juicy, but we're supporting the Netherlands to take the points at 8/25 and Tunisia to get on the scoresheet, as they should be able to at least break through the visitors defence once.
The two very different tactical approaches could make for an intriguing game, but Tunisia's unpredictability under Renard makes this tough to predict. The group stage means the game is open, but we think the structure and firepower of Netherlands will win the day.
