- Turkey and Paraguay enter this game on 0 points, sitting in 3rd and 4th place in the group.
- Turkey's recent form is superior with 4 wins in their last 5 games across all competitions.
- Paraguay have lost their only away fixture and conceded four to USA.
An intense tactical clash at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium
Turkey and Paraguay each need a result to stay in the race for World Cup progression, as they sit 3rd and 4th respectively in Group D after their opening games. The tactics of Vincenzo Montella and Gustavo Alfaro could not be more different, with the Italian opting for a more fluid, possession-based approach, while the Argentine goes for a more defensive set-up, with compactness and counter-attacking threat the priority.
Montella's approach has made Turkey an extremely proactive team, with lots of dynamic players in each line. Hakan Çalhanoğlu is the deep-lying playmaker, while Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız are the two most likely outlets from the 4-2-3-1 system.
Turkey have been a high tempo team under Montella, with his influence on the team undeniable, as they have been creating numerical superiority on the wings, creating overloads in the half-spaces and taking more risks in possession in this tournament than they would have done previously. Turkey breezed by North Macedonia 4-0 and scraped by Venezuela 2-1 in their two games prior to the 2-0 defeat to Australia, where the Turks couldn't create enough and the Australians defended well.
A compact Paraguay side will test Turkey
Turkey are the favourites at 11/10, as they should be against a side that have been poor travellers in this World Cup. Paraguay's best result so far was a 4-0 win at home to Nicaragua, but their two defeats came in two away games, with Morocco defeating them 4-0 and the USA beating them 4-0.
Paraguay's compact style makes them incredibly difficult to break through centrally, as they drop into a low block and make it difficult for teams to get a foothold in the game, but they have looked vulnerable when the tempo of the game is high, as Morocco and the USA were able to expose. Paraguay have averaged just 1 goal per game away from home in this World Cup campaign, so they will struggle to get a goal against this Turkish team.
Alfaro's side are led by the creative energy of Julio Enciso, who is always looking to play in the hole and has been a great passer, laying off 3 assists in Paraguay's last 5 games, including 1 assist in this World Cup group stage.
A high-scoring game is expected
Mauricio has 1 goal in this World Cup and is likely to be a threat again. Paraguay will not get much joy against this high-tempo Turkey side and they may not be able to hold firm for 90 minutes.
I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair and a Turkey win at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium on Saturday, as they should have the ability to break Paraguay down, while Paraguay will find it difficult to score against them. 'Over 2.5 goals' is 117/100 and 'Both Teams to Score - No' is 21/25, so I'm backing both.
