- Union Berlin have been beaten 2-0 by Freiburg and Wolfsburg in back-to-back games.
- Union have avoided defeat on Leipzig's last two trips to Berlin.
No real value on Union as big outsiders
With Union Berlin ranked 16th in the Bundesliga 2026/2027 after picking up only 7 points from 9 games, relegation pressure is already on Mauro Lustrinelli's side. The Italian has been in charge since 1 July 2026 and is trying to establish a high-pressing 4-2-2-2 or 4-1-3-2 system in which his team can press high up and spring fast breaks.
But Union have lost their way a bit in recent games with no wins, two draws and three defeats in their last five in all competitions. The 2-0 losses to Freiburg and then Wolfsburg in a friendly this week will have been a wake-up call to Die Eisernen.
But a 4-5 friendly defeat to Mlada Boleslav last week suggests there is still some sloppiness in the defence and in the way the team are combining in the transition zones. Tim Skarke is leading the Bundesliga 2026/2027 goals charts for them with two in four and he is still their sharpest edge in the frontline.
Betting on Leipzig to win should be profitable
Die Roten Bullen are rightful favourites to win at 1.55, but Union are a huge 5.1 to win on Saturday and 4.35 to steal a draw in this derby matchup at the Alte Foersterei. It is true that the head-to-head record in the last three meetings is one win each and a draw, so it's close.
But Martin Demichelis' men are fourth in the table, just in the Champions League places, with 18 points from 9 matches and should prove too much for this out-of-sorts Union team. They have settled into a tempo of play in which they press, counter-press, play the ball at speed and can be deadly on the transition - as Antonio Nusa has been for them in 4 Bundesliga 2026/2027 outings.
Leipzig have won three of their last five in all comps, so it looks safe to trust them to come up trumps here - even though Union have stopped them from winning on their previous two visits to Berlin. The main selection is to back Leipzig to come out on top with over 2.5 goals in the game at 1.44, which looks a much better way of backing the favourites than simply taking them in the head-to-head market.
