- Team form: RB Leipzig have won three of their last five in all competitions and should have too much firepower to get anything from the game
- Union’s form: Union Berlin have no wins in their last five, having lost three and drawn two
- Home scoring: Union have managed just six goals in their five Bundesliga 2026-2027 home games
Leipzig’s league position and odds are a mismatch
The odds
RB Leipzig are the favorites to win Saturday's clash at Alte Foersterei at 1.55 while Union Berlin are big outsiders at 5.1 with the draw coming in at 4.35. It is true that Die Roten Bullen have been the better team this season, but the odds on this clash are skewed because Union have not been giving much to the punters.
Union’s struggles
Mauro Lustrinelli took over as coach on 1 July 2026 and is trying to make the team press high and release his pacy players into fast breaks, but it is taking time. The side that was constructed to play in the more possession-based style is still in place and not really geared up to play that way either.
Hence, Union find themselves 16th in the Bundesliga 2026/2027 with seven points from nine games and already under pressure. The pressure is even greater because they are on a two-game losing streak following back-to-back 2-0 defeats to Freiburg in the Bundesliga 2026/2027 and Wolfsburg in a friendly.
Union have been in a rut for months
Leipzig’s approach
So Leipzig, fourth with 18 points from nine games, will be fully aware that they should get something from this trip to face a team that is clearly below them in the standings. Martin Demichelis has been in charge of Die Roten Bullen since 1 July 2026 and they have played at a high tempo under his leadership.
They are counter-pressing and playing some good passing moves in the tight areas where they can get the ball to stick, but have not been quite as free-scoring as in the days of Marco Rose.
Players and recent results
They beat Augsburg 5-2 in a Bundesliga 2026-2027 match, but were loose at the back in the 4-5 friendly loss to Mlada Boleslav a week later.
- Antonio Nusa is the greatest threat they have, with two goals in four Bundesliga 2026-2027 appearances to his name, and they can be deadly in transition with the pace he provides.
- Tim Skarke leads the Bundesliga 2026-2027 scoring for Union with two from four games, but Janik Haberer has been in the groove recently with two of Union's three goals in their last five coming from his boot.
Reds’ recent record against Union is even, but Leipzig have more
Leipzig are clearly the favorite to win and their recent form merits our trust to do so, even though Union have avoided defeat in Leipzig's two most recent away trips to Berlin. The head-to-head record between these clubs is all square at one win apiece and one draw in the last three meetings, so it may be a close matchup yet.
A Leipzig win with over 2.5 goals at 1.44 is worth a small play to back up the favorite in this game as they have conceded 2.75 goals per game on their Bundesliga 2026-2027 away trips. Union's home record is one win, three draws and one defeat from five with six goals scored, which looks unlikely to be enough to see off a team that are well settled in their attacking patterns.
