- Toluca have lost their last 2, but Alexis Vega is in top form with 2 goals in his last 5 and 1 in 2 Liga MX 2026/2027 outings.
- Necaxa are the hotter of the two sides with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 across all competitions.
- Toluca are 1.45 for the win and Necaxa are 6.3, while the draw is 4.75.
Contrast in Toluca’s home and away record
Toluca sit 7th with 3 points from 2 games, while Necaxa are 4th with 6 points from 2 in Liga MX 2026/2027. This is due to the fact that Toluca have lost their only home game so far in the new season, scoring 1.00 per game at home and conceding 2.00. Necaxa have failed to win either of their last 2 away games against Toluca.
The game styles of Toluca and Necaxa also contrast: Necaxa's 0-1 away loss to Cruz Azul, followed by 2-1 home wins over Atlante and Monterrey in Liga MX 2026/2027 demonstrate their ability to match Toluca in terms of pressing, pace and physicality.
Martín Varini has got Necaxa pressing higher up and playing faster than usual with a 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1 shape that allows them to win the ball in the top third and attack the box vertically.
Antonio Mohamed has the opposite problem in that his 4-2-3-1 can morph into a 3 at the back and his pressing is selective, but he likes to control the central lanes with his players rotating and cycling through the ball. Julian Carranza has been Necaxa's primary outlet with 2 goals in 2 in Liga MX 2026/2027, while Helinho has been the metronome at the centre of Toluca's 4-2-3-1, providing 2 assists in 2 in Liga MX 2026/2027.
This is a tough one to call, but Toluca have the home advantage and it will be interesting to see how they respond to Necaxa's intense pressing. The head-to-head favors Toluca, who have won the last 2 meetings, including a 0-3 rout in an away game 5 months ago in the Liga MX 2025/2026. Necaxa have failed to win either of their last 2 away games against Toluca, so this will be a mental test for the visitors.
Toluca to me, are the more likely winner on home turf, but Necaxa have better form and should press them much more than most of their home opponents. Take Over 2.5 goals at 1.39 and Both Teams to Score at 1.6, as the game should be open, not a cagey chess game.
