- Toluca are the stronger team on paper, but Necaxa are in hotter form with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 matches in all competitions.
- Toluca have lost their last 2 games, but Helinho is the creative fulcrum with 2 assists in 2 Liga MX 2026/2027 matches while Alexis Vega has scored 2 goals in the last 5 games, including 1 in 2 league matches.
Toluca could win at home, but Necaxa will make it tough
It is a game of two teams going in different directions with Toluca looking the better team on paper, but coming into this game on the back of two straight defeats while Necaxa, the underdogs, are in better form.
The home side have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 in all competitions, starting the Liga MX 2026/2027 campaign with a superb 2-0 away win over Chivas before suffering a 1-2 home defeat to Pumas and then a 1-0 loss to Cruz Azul in the Campeon de Campeones.
Necaxa's last 3 results are the mirror opposite of Toluca's with a 0-1 away defeat to Cruz Azul followed by back-to-back 2-1 home wins over Atlante and Monterrey in the league.
Contrast of styles makes for an intriguing game
Antonio Mohamed's men have adopted an adaptable 4-2-3-1 system that can morph into a back three when needed. They employ selective pressing and smart control of the central lanes.
Martín Varini's Necaxa press higher and play faster, using a 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1 shape to win the ball high and punch vertically. The visitors have played 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1 systems that allow them to win the ball high and punch vertically.
It is a clash of styles that should make the game open and goals look likely so the odds for over 2.5 goals at 39/100 and both teams to score at 3/5 look good value.
Necaxa have lost their last 2 away games against Toluca
The hosts will probably edge this one, given Toluca have won the last 2 meetings and beat Necaxa 3-0 away in Liga MX 2025/2026 five months ago. But the visitors have failed to win either of their last 2 visits to Toluca, so there is a mental hurdle for them to get over.
Toluca's home form hasn't been great with 0 wins in 1 match played on their turf, scoring 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00, but they are the more likely winners in this contest.
However, Necaxa's momentum and pressing makes this a live game and the draw at 15/4 looks good value given the odds for Toluca to take the win are 9/20 and Necaxa are the underdogs at 53/10.
