- Sheriff are the form team, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5.
- Aluminij are the visitors and they have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5.
- Sheriff are unbeaten at home this season in all competitions, with 5 wins from 5 and 1 goal conceded.
Sheriff should have enough class to edge a tight clash
FC Sheriff Tiraspol come into the UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026 match as clear favorites to beat Aluminij, who come into the 1st leg of the tie as 4.6 underdogs, with the draw priced at 3.5.
Sheriff have had a good season to date, but a resurgence since 2025 has seen Victor Mihailov's men go up a gear or two. Mihailov has been in charge since 1 June 2025 and his side have looked very drilled and very proactive since then.
Sheriff's last 5 matches have seen a 3-0 win over FC Real Sireti (H) and a 0-0 draw away at Politehnica Chisinau in the Super Liga 2026/2027. That's 3 wins and 2 draws, which tells us that they rarely let any points slip, which bodes well for them here.
Aluminij haven't been in particularly good shape this season, with 3 of their 5 most recent matches ending in defeat. A 0-0 draw at home to Primorje Ajdovscina was followed up by a 3-0 defeat away at NK Maribor in the Prva Liga 2025/2026. Jure Arsič has set his team up in a pragmatic fashion, which is designed to absorb pressure and be disciplined, before hitting on the counter with quick players.
Aluminij are an organised team, set up in a 3-5-2 or 3-4-1-2, depending on whether they want to play with a number 10 or 2 wide players behind their front 2. Sheriff are a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 hybrid, with high fullbacks, a single pivot and fast vertical transitions.
The clash will be interesting, with Sheriff pressing high and Aluminij trying to keep it tight. Aluminij have won just 2 and lost 4 of their 6 away matches in all current competitions and will be hard-pressed to do better here.
Sheriff should win this game, they have the form, the home advantage, the superior quality and much lower odds. Aluminij's recent away form is also poor, while Sheriff have won 2 of their last 2 home matches.
Sheriff have averaged 2.20 goals scored and 0.20 conceded at home in all their current competitions, a figure that indicates sheer dominance on their patch. Aluminij have averaged 0.50 scored and 1.83 conceded away in the same contests, a figure that suggests they'll be chasing the game for large periods of the game.
Sheriff have had multiple gears in attack this season, with Jayder Asprilla, who has scored 2 of their 6 goals across the last 5 matches, their danger man. Aluminij have had to rely on Bamba Susso to provide the spark up top, with the 27-year-old having scored 2 of their 2 only goals across the same 5 fixtures.
Sheriff should have the quality to win this one, which also suits the odds and the overall game control that they should have. For the record, our main selection is Sheriff & Under 3.5 Match Goals, as the Moldovan side are more likely to squeeze through this one than tear it open.
