- Real Madrid are 2nd in LaLiga 2026/2027 with nine points from four matches while Rayo Vallecano are 12th on four points from their first four games.
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last five matches against Rayo Vallecano (W2, D3).
- Real Madrid have won two of their two home games in LaLiga 2026/2027 while Rayo have failed to win either of their away games (L2).
Tight affair expected at Estadio Bernabeu
Los Blancos will have been delighted with the start they have made under Jose Mourinho in 2026-2027 as they have taken second place with nine points from their opening four LaLiga 2026/2027 games.
A 4-0 thrashing of Malaga CF at Estadio Bernabeu set the tone for their latest campaign and was followed by a 1-0 defeat away to Real Betis, a game in which they were still perhaps unfortunate to come away with nothing.
Franjirrojos have been up and down since they opened their LaLiga 2026/2027 campaign with a 1-1 draw against Deportivo Alaves at home, losing 5-2 away to Barcelona before beating Racing Santander 3-2 in their most recent game.
The form of both of these sides is tough to call for this game, so we're going to focus on the two main drivers of Rayo's press and Real's counter attacks.
Franjirrojos to try and press Real
Beñat San Jose has done a good job in maintaining a high-energy press and vertical attack that remains a part of Rayo's DNA while Jose Mourinho has installed a solid 4-2-3-1 system in Madrid where compact blocks and blistering transition play do the damage.
Unai Lopez has been pulling the strings for Rayo with three assists in his last five games while the attack has scored eight goals in that time. Sergio Camello is their most dangerous player with three goals in three LaLiga 2026/2027 games and four in their last five.
Kylian Mbappe is the most dangerous weapon in Real Madrid's arsenal, top scoring with four goals in four LaLiga 2026/2027 matches, but we think Rayo will set up to deny space in behind the defence for the Frenchman.
The value is in the double chance
Real Madrid are favourites at 1.14 and the odds don't make sense here. There is more value in the draw at 7.75, but we will take Rayo on the double chance as they have failed to beat Real in their last two attempts.
This is a derby and the hosts have had the measure of them in recent seasons, winning their last home game against them 2-1 and avoiding defeat in the last five meetings.
Real Madrid should have enough to edge a close game with the odds and recent head-to-head suggesting a home win. But the Under 2.5 goals market at 3.35 looks a good bet if Mourinho's men can keep the game controlled and the visitors unable to break them down.
