- Milan are perfect at home (3 wins from 3 games) and have scored 8 goals at San Siro in Serie A 2026/2027.
- Bologna have won 1 and lost 2 of their 3 away Serie A 2026/2027 fixtures (0.67 goals per game).
- Bologna have not won either of their last 2 away games vs. Milan.
Sides have changed in Serie A 2026/2027
Milan are 4th in the 2026-27 Serie A with 15 points from 7 games, while Bologna are 15th with five from the same number of matches. However, the head-to-head suggests the table may not be a good indicator of where we should be placing our faith in this contest, with Milan winning 3 of the last 5 meetings (Bologna taking 2).
Since a 3-0 away win over Bologna in 2025/2026, Ruben Amorim has Milan playing in a more structured 3-4-2-1 system where the wing-backs provide width and the pressing is less frantic and more calculated than under the previous manager. They come into this game on the back of a two-game winning streak that includes a 4-0 away thrashing of FC Red Bull Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League and a 3-2 home win against Atalanta in Serie A.
Raffaele Palladino has done a very good job in making his Bologna side a more direct, high-tempo back-three system, which really presses and tries to catch opponents on the counter. The side responded to Milan's 3-0 win with a 2-1 win at Lecce, but then fell to a 3-1 home defeat to Inter last time out, so the momentum is not really with the visitors.
Bologna have more momentum, Milan have home advantage
Milan are the obvious choice at 29/50, with Bologna at 9/2 and the draw at 59/20, but we're looking for a bit more value than those odds offer in a game where the visitors can make it interesting if they land the first punch.
However, the better alternative market is probably BTTS No at 93/100 because Amorim's men have been in control of the games they have played at San Siro. Diego Moreira is their danger man in Serie A 2026/2027, having scored 3 goals in 3 games. He has a knack for scoring goals early and that could spell doom for a Bologna side that needs more end-product from Artem Dovbyk's 1 goal in 3 games.
Milan have the advantage in the stats, home advantage and have been scoring plenty of goals recently so we will side with a Milan win here.
